20200210M Day 41: Voyage of the Diamond Princess through the Multiverse

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In one set of universes, all the people on the Diamond Princess are enjoying a fabulous cruise. In another set of universes, they are quarantined in a Japanese harbor. In both sets, there are some universes where the only one infected is the 80-year-old man who boarded the cruise ship in Yokohama on Jan. 20th, was on a bus tour with 40 people in Kagoshima on Jan. 23rd, disembarked on Jan. 25th in Hong Kong, and tested positive for the novel coronavirus on Feb. 1st.

Here are the numbers of infected to date:

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There are many universes where the 80-year-old who first tested positive was not the only one infected of the over 3700 people on the cruise ship. To date, less than 10% of the passengers on the ship have been tested for the presence of the coronavirus. It appears we are in a universe where the Diamond Princess is being used to test assumptions about the spread of the coronavirus in a somewhat controlled setting.

20200209u Day 40: Conspiracy Theories in Multiple Realities

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When feeling into the quantum field of multiple worlds, I find it difficult to not fall down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories. One thing I do to stay grounded is pay attention to the classical facts that are continually present in the universe I’m in. I also acknowledge that due to the infinite nature of parallel worlds, almost all conspiracy theories are true in at least one reality. I don’t ask myself then whether a conspiracy theory is true or not. Instead, I ask myself how close it is to me – to my current classical reality. I also underweight conspiracy theories that I sense are being promoted for reasons other than reporting the truth.

As an example, consider the recent research paper which was preprinted on bioRxiv on Jan. 31, 2020 (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871) entitled Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag. This paper was retracted only a few days later. Some comments about it …

From https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/ :

The paper, from academic institutions in New Delhi, India, was critical and alarming, if true. Except that it wasn’t.

and this from https://theprepared.com/blog/no-the-2019-ncov-genome-doesnt-actually-seem-engineered-from-hiv/

In other words, the sequence overlap is not actually uncanny, and there is no big scoop here. The group in India fell prey to some of the pitfalls of bioinformatics research.

and factcheck.org also debunked the research article as a baseless conspiracy theory:

Several online stories inaccurately claim that the new coronavirus contains HIV “insertions” and shows signs of being created in a lab. But there is no evidence that the new virus was bioengineered, and every indication it came from an animal.

and ChinaDaily.com.cn article Coronavirus conspiracy debunked by Wuhan researcher:

A scientist from the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has debunked a recent conspiracy which claimed the novel coronavirus was manufactured and escaped from the institute’s most advanced biocontainment facility.

Shi Zhengli, a researcher from the institute, said on her social media on Sunday the virus was the result of “nature punishing the uncivilized habits and customs of humans”, and she is willing to “bet my life that [the outbreak] has nothing to do with the lab.”

Shi was the leading scientist who made the discovery the novel coronavirus can enter cells through ACE2 receptors and may have originated from bats.

Her comments came after Indian scientists recently published a non-peer reviewed paper suggesting scientists had artificially inserted genes from the HIV virus into the coronavirus, thus making it susceptible to anti-HIV treatments.

The paper was immediately panned by experts around the world and retracted from biology journal server bioRxiv on Sunday.

In a Twitter post commenting on the paper, David Liu, a chemistry professor from Harvard University, said: “The mere claim that such short inserts support nCoV origins ‘unlikely to be fortuitous in nature’ is already highly suspect.”

“This is a classic case of searching for lost keys only under a lamppost,” he said. “A fearful world does not need to fuel conspiracy theories with bad analyses.”

The last quote about searching for lost keys only under a lamppost is one I especially like. I’ve often told that joke. However, I’ve also learned that I can find my lost keys specifically by looking for them “under a lamppost”. I don’t end up finding them there, but the act of looking for them there seems to removed the lamppost as a possibility and once I’ve checked enough lampposts, then I can often look in the grass between the lampposts and find them.

After withdrawing the paper preprint, one of the authors commented:

While we appreciate the criticisms and comments provided by scientific colleagues at BioRxiv forum and elsewhere, the story has been differently interpreted and shared by social media and news platforms.

We have positively received all criticisms and comments. To avoid further misinterpretation and confusions world-over, we have decided to withdraw the current version of the preprint.

But just when you think everyone is in the same universe, evidence of interference between two sets of universes – one natural virus and one man-made virus – is still seen. The Taiwan News reports Chinese military news agency discloses 2019-nCoV was product of lab: Guide Wengui:

As conspiracies about the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) surface in recent weeks, exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui (郭文貴) said on Tuesday (Feb. 4) that Chinese military news network Xilu claimed the virus was engineered by the United States, which is strangely at odds with what Chinese health authorities have said.

@DrEricDing has some ideas on threader journalling his trip down the rabbit hole – with references!

At this point, the origin of 2019-nCoV is still in a superposition of states (wild and man-made), at least for most of the people on the planet.

 

 

20200207F Day 38: Wuhan Central Hospital Doctor Li Wenliang is 638th Confirmed Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus

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It was reported in the last 24 hours that Dr. Li Wenliang died of the novel coronavirus disease at the age of 34. His time of death was noted as 2:58am on Friday by the hospital. Earlier in the day he had been reported both dead and alive, as if he were a Schrödinger’s Cat. The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is a useful model of reality. Using this interpretation/model, Dr. Li is in many universes still combating the coronavirus and saving lives. His continued work in these other universes will help us here in this universe.

Dr. Li was one of the first doctors to identify a SARS-like coronavirus infection. He reported it at 17:43 on 2019-12-30 in a WeChat group of his med school classmates. After snapshots of his WeChat messages were posted online, he was accused by police of “making false comments on the Internet”.  He was admitted to intensive care on 2020-01-12 and his infection was not confirmed as novel coronavirus until 2020-02-01.

There are a set of universes where Dr. Li’s warnings were reported earlier and the coronavirus outbreak was contained. People resonating with the energy of these universes will help ease the crisis we are experiencing in this one. The actions of China’s Supreme People’s Court to speak against the police accusations is an example of this energy resonating.

 

20200206h Day 37: NPR Interview with David Quammen Notes Mapped to the Multiverse

Some points to consider from the NPR interview on the novel coronavirus with science write David Quammen from a couple days ago:

  1. 2019-nCoV case fatality rate of (currently) 2% is in the range that should be taken seriously.
  2. The limited number of masks should be reserved for those who are sick and health care workers. They are not that effective in protecting healthy people.
  3. The chances are there – how big we don’t know – that a pandemic will one day infect and kill a large percentage of the world population.

Of these points, all involve probabilities. Nearby universes surround us with slight changes in probability. Farther away universes have larger changes in probability. So, a nearby universe would be one where the 2019-nCoV case fatality rate is 3% instead of 2% and a farther away one would be where it is 20% instead of 2%. The effectiveness of people wearing masks can also be similar or different in near and far universes, respectively. And the chance a pandemic will one day infect and kill a large percentage of the world population can also be used to order universes along a continuum. Each of these three measures can be thought of as a different dimension in the parallel universe space. As an example, considering only these three measures, one could visualize a 3-D space of universes by assigning number 1 to the X-axis, number 2 to the Y-axis, and number 3 to the Z-axis.

20200204 Day 35: Feb 28 Cases Peak 145,000 and Deaths Peak 2,000

Assuming no outbreaks in other countries, using the official numbers reported to date by China, and hoping for the best, the number of worldwide reported cases peak at 145,000 and number of deaths peak at 2,000.

Date /2020 Total Cases China Cases China Severe China Deaths Ex China Cases Ex China Deaths
1/21 282 278 63 6 4 0
1/22 314 309 63 6 5 0
1/23 581 571 95 17 10 0
1/24 864 830 177 25 34 0
1/25 1320 1287 237 41 33 0
1/26 2014 1985 324 56 29 0
1/27 2798 2741 491 80 37 0
1/28 4593 4537 976 106 56 0
1/29 6065 5997 1239 132 68 0
1/30 7818 7736 1370 170 82 0
1/31 9826 9720 1527 213 109 0
2/1 11953 11821 1795 259 132 0
2/2 14557 14411 2110 304 146 1
2/3 17391 17238 2296 361 153 1
2/4 20628 20438 2498 425 155 2
2/5 24292 24019 2719 496 156 2
2/6 28403 27978 2958 574 157 3
2/7 32971 32303 3219 658 157 4
2/8 38000 36969 3503 749 159 6
2/9 43483 41935 3812 844 160 9
2/10 49400 47150 4148 944 162 13
2/11 55721 52547 4513 1046 164 18
2/12 62401 58045 4911 1149 165 24
2/13 69382 63554 5344 1252 167 31
2/14 76591 68974 5815 1352 168 39
2/15 83944 74196 6328 1447 170 46
2/16 91344 79112 6885 1536 172 53
2/17 98685 83609 7492 1616 174 59
2/18 105853 87585 8153 1686 175 63
2/19 112728 90942 8872 1743 177 67
2/20 119191 93595 9654 1787 179 68
2/21 125122 95478 10505 1817 181 69
2/22 130408 96541 11431 1831 182 69
2/23 134945 96757 12438 1838 184 69
2/24 138639 97615 13535 1856 186 70
2/25 141415 98591 14728 1874 188 71
2/26 143214 99577 16026 1893 190 72
2/27 143998 100573 17439 1912 192 72
2/28 145047 101578 18976 1931 194 73