20200508F Day 129: Long Stock Picks for June 8th and Beyond – 5 Week Update

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In 20200403F-05u Days 94-96: Long Stock Picks for June 8th and Beyond, I listed some stocks I purchased on that day. I just checked the return of the stock picks and it matched  the S&P500 over the last 2 weeks, exactly, at 18.2%. This compares with up 15% 3 weeks ago.

I am a bit surprised that these long picks so closely matched the SPY. With 500 stocks, the SPY provides better diversification. I prefer to be a bit more conscious of the stocks I am picking and don’t want to blindly invest in an index.

For some reason, I started looking at the current price of the S&P 500 of $2929.80 and looked back to when it was about this price in the past. On Oct 4, 2019, S&P 500 closed at $2951.01. Much more synchronistically, the S&P 500 hit a local top of $2925.51 on Oct 3, 2018. Over the next 3 months from that date, the S&P 500 dropped 17% to $2447.89. The Oct 3, 2018 date is synchronistic to me because I referred back to it in AAPL Stock Prediction for Oct 3, 2019, in which I noted:

On Oct 3, 2018, AAPL hit an all time high of $233.47 and today it is down over 20% from that high, opening at $178.37.  Could I surf to a universe where APPL stock is up over 25% from today by Oct 3, 2019?  In that universe, AAPL would be above it’s all time high price of $233.47.  While I can imagine how I could increase my odds of that universe, I do not feel a calling to do so due to the limited influence I believe I have on that event.  So, I’m left with a sense based primarily on wishful thinking that AAPL stock will hit a new all time high before Oct 3, 2019.

The AAPL stock prediction was close. AAPL closed at $220.83 on Oct 3, 2019 and a week later set a new high of $236.21 on Oct 11, 2019. On Mar 20, 2020, AAPL hit a year low of $229.24.

If it’s synchronistic, then there must be some meaning to it. The meaning that I’m feeling is that the world is at an inflection point and something unexpected is about to happen.

 

20200412u Day 103: Stock Market Thoughts and Predictions

Santa Cruz, CA: Last week the stock market had a good week – one of the best in quite a while. A few days ago I spoke to a friend from the future who is betting against the market. She is not alone. I just googled “hedge fund bets on sell off” and found the following – interesting from Nov. 22, 2019!

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Ray Dalio replied to the WSJ by posting that it is misleading to report that he had a bearish view of the stock market and that his hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, had no “net bet” that the stock market would fall. What seems clear is that he was hedging his stock portfolio to protect it from a drop in the overall market.

So, Ray was apparently feeling the recent market plunge back in October of last year and started buying “insurance” against a total market correction. It would require delving into conspiracy theories to ponder the reasons why he felt the need for such insurance. Perhaps he took notice of the Event 201 Pandemic Simulation Exercise. From the website:

Event 201, hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, envisions a fast-spreading coronavirus with a devastating impact

In an article from almost a month ago, Bridgewater has placed even bigger bets – $15B against Europe and UK. From the article:

The world’s biggest hedge fund manager’s short positions amount to more than $5.3 billion in France and $4.7 billion in Germany, while in Spain its shorts add up to almost $1.4 billion and $821 million in three Italian companies.

Data was not available to show whether Bridgewater, which has $160 billion in assets under management, holds more European stocks than it shorts.

Another hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, posted about a 100x return on his company’s website:

On 23 March, we completed the exit of our hedges generating proceeds of $2.6bn for the Pershing Square funds, compared with premiums paid and commissions totaling $27m.

I’m sure if I searched I could find other examples of huge bets against the market. Given the fear caused by the pandemic, and the obvious negative effect it is going to cause on the world economies, a bet on the market failing seems like a safe one. However, my thought is that any bet on a failing market should be truly a hedge in this time of uncertainty and act to cushion the loss in value of a net long position. By being long on solid companies and adding a hedge against the entire market dropping, hedge fund managers should be able to sleep better at night.

My thoughts on where the stock market is going is all of the above. It will drop due to the increasing costs of the pandemic, it will rise due to the monetary and governmental stimulus, and it will stay the same due to the balance of these two. There are a set of universes for each of these three scenarios and I would like to plan so that my portfolio stays roughly the same in each of these cases.  For bonds, I like floating over fixed, shorter over longer, and treasuries over non-treasuries. For real estate, I like residential over commercial. For equities, I like American over non-American – although the stronger dollar is going to be a weight on American companies. For currencies, I like the Dollar over the Euro and Yuan and the Yen over the Dollar. For precious metals, I like Silver over Gold. There is a high likelihood that one or more fiat currencies experiences hyper inflation and the Dollar is not immune.

20200408W Day 99: Bernie beats Trump in one Universe and Suspends Campaign in Another

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Today, in this universe, Bernie suspended his campaign for the democratic nomination for President of the United States. This all but insures that Biden will be the democratic nominee and face Trump this November. On Bernie’s website now there is the above poll info about Bernie beating Trump in a nearby universe.

Given the merger of two sets of universes we are currently experiencing, COVID-19 pandemic in one set and no pandemic in the other set, there will be ripple effects that create unexpected events. While Trump and Biden are the two horses to bet on for President of the U.S. 2021-2024, a third horse is likely to emerge from the tension of these two opposites.

20200326h Day 86: 74 days until June 8th

When I imagine June 8th, it feels like just another day in the parallel reality without a coronavirus pandemic spreading across the world. And yet I know COVID-19 outbreaks will most likely still be occurring. The universe I sense and wish to surf to has the following characteristics:

  1. I don’t think about or talk to anyone about coronaviruses or pandemics;
  2. Everyone I know who wants a job, has a job;
  3. The local newspaper only has an occasionally story about a new local coronavirus case and there are no sustained outbreaks nearby;
  4. Daily whitehouse.gov press briefings are no longer happening;
  5. Doctors have a standard treatment procedure for COVID-19 that brings the CFR down to the same level as seasonal flu;
  6. The stock market has recovered somewhat and volatility is rare;
  7. Unfortunately, the confirmed number of COVID-19 cases and deaths will have far surpassed the number of confirmed number of Influenza cases and deaths; and
  8. Grocery stores are fully stocked and N95 masks are available at normal prices.

20200319h Day 79: Number of new cases in China equals $IRX 13-week T-Bill Interest rate equals Zero

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China announced that it had no new cases (excluding imported cases) of COVID-19 yesterday and the 13-week US Treasury Bill index (IRX) interest rate fell to 98.18% to 0.003%, within rounding of zero percent interest. The 5-year and longer treasure yields all rose as the US dollar and liquidity are now precious assets. March 18th was another volatile day for stocks. AAPL hit a low of $237.12, only a few dollars above the then all-time high of $233.47 that I blogged about in 2018: AAPL Stock Prediction for Oct 3, 2019. More interesting, the NASDAQ closed at 6989.84, below the 7560 prediction I felt “more than 50%” confident about in Aug 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index prediction for March 9, 2019. It’s interesting that I made that prediction for 2019 and it is now true in 2020. The NASDAQ actually fell below 7560 almost a week ago on March 12, 2020. Oh wow, I’m going back to look at 2019 and the NASDAQ on March 12, 2020 closed at 7591.03 and was 7505.92 the week before. So, very close to 7560 on March 9, 2019. Interesting! What I wrote back in August 2018 seems quite synchronistic to me now:

I’m feeling a universe where it is possible for me to sense large changes in the financial markets before they happen.  In this universe, I’m sensing a large change in the negative direction occurring either between October 5th and October 19th, on November 9th, or between December 26th and January 19th, 2019.  Based on this, I sense that there is a greater than 50% chance that on March 9, 2019, the NASDAQ Comp will be lower than 7,560, the value it was on March 9, 2018.

I’m more curious about why I feel compelled to make this prediction.  Only the future knows.

“Feeling” the direction of the market is risky business. If you were to ask me to feel the market now, I would likely stay with safe bets all based around the belief that a year from now, the US dollar will be of relatively lower value compared to other fiat currencies and precious metals. Partly because of this, and partly because the stock market has taken a beating due to the coronavirus pandemic, the NASDAQ, SP500, and most publicly traded stocks will be of higher value, priced in dollars, than they are now.

20200219W Day 50: Quantum Analysis of Debate Shows Bernie Likely to Win Most Pledged Delegates

One of the final questions to each candidate was:

If a candidate does not win a majority of the delegates, will you support the selection of the candidate with the most delegates?

All but Bernie said that they wanted to abide by the rules of the Democratic Party. That’s an interesting response that, if made from a self-interest standpoint, would mean that ALL of the candidates on stage believed that Bernie would receive the most delegates of all the candidates – at least most of the pledged delegates anyway.

If all of the candidates are accurately feeling the possible futures and their likelihood, then all of them are consistent in believing that Bernie will likely win the most pledged delegates.

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20200214F Day 45: Near Universe where 2019 Novel Coronavirus is in Austin

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Today, the CDC announced that individuals who display flu-like symptoms and who test negative for the flu should be tested for coronavirus. This is to start in a few of the larger cities (e.g. San Francisco, New York). Also today, I went to the urgent care with my partner to get tested for the flu. She has flu-like symptoms and tested negative for the flu. We asked about testing for novel coronavirus and the doctor had heard something about it being tested in some cities. She told us not to worry because COVID-19 has only a 2% mortality rate and that the flu kills many more people. She seemed to imply that the flu has a higher mortality rate, but I didn’t want to get into a math lesson with her when I figured she was just trying to ease our worries. “The only coronavirus confirmed case is in quarantine in San Antonio”, she said. She also mentioned that a number of people had been in today with flu symptoms and for some reason the flu tests were coming back negative. “Maybe something wrong with the flu tests”, she said. I mentioned that we had just flown in the day before from California. This didn’t seem to raise any concern. She knew about the Diamond Princess cases – she called the ship the “death ship” and was appalled that people were being kept on it instead of being quarentined in their own country.

I did notice the sign on the front door about letting them know if you believe you may have been exposed to COVID-19. I’m curious if the doctor would have still welcomed us with a handshake if we came in wearing masks.

20200211T Day 42: Surfing to a Universe where I analyze viral genomes

As an experiment, I’m going to try surfing to a universe where I analyze viral genomes. I had an early interest in the novel coronavirus outbreak over a month ago.  I felt myself moving close to universes where there was a coronavirus pandemic in 2020 Day 17: Wuhan Coronavirus infections in Thailand and Japan in which I wrote:

This morning I thought it would be interesting to use this blog as a way to experiment with quantum feeling parallel worlds. My hypothesis is that parallel worlds can be sensed, and that the feeling of sensing a parallel world is correlated with the feeling of a synchronicity, and furthermore that the synchronicity is related to an event that ties the parallel worlds together. For example, eight days ago I sensed a parallel world in which the Wuhan Coronavirus was a bigger event than it was in this world.

There’s not currently a pandemic in the strictest sense of the word, with the only country experiencing an outbreak thus far being China (ignoring the Diamond Princess cruise ship that recently had a doubling of cases to 135). The novel coronavirus has been provisionally named 2019-nCoV. A new name, SARS-CoV-2, has been proposed by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. The disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named by the WHO as COVID-19.

In the universes where I analyze viral genomes, I am almost certainly analyzing SARS-CoV-2. I’m curious where this universe surfing will lead …

2020 Day 20: Twenty predictions for 2020

20. The U.S. Congress will continue to vote primarily along party lines (Duh). This will increase the chance of a third-party movement gaining momentum.

19. The Wuhan coronavirus will spread in a similar way as other SARS-like coronaviruses. All cities with direct flights to Wuhan will be infected.

18. I will run 5 miles at a 9-min mile pace, 4 miles at an 8.5-min mile pace, 3 miles at an 8-min mile pace, 2 miles at a 7.5-min mile pace, and 1 mile in 6.5 min.

17. I will update this blog from at least two other countries.

16. Apple will have an exciting “one more thing”.

15. AMD will continue to take away server market share from Intel.

14. A 3rd-party candidate will shake up the U.S. presidential election.

13. Alan Greenspan’s coined phrase irrational exuberance will become a trending hash tag.

12. Religions across the world will reclaim their role as protectors of the long-term survival of humanity by joining together with a common voice against climate change.

11. Gasoline prices, Gold, and Bitcoin will spike higher with Gold hitting $2000/oz and Bitcoin topping $20,000.

10. April will be a tough month for the stock market, which will end 2020 roughly even after a rollercoaster of a year.

9. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will remain a Supreme Court justice longer than Trump will remain President.

8. Combined global land and ocean surface temperature for August 2020 will be almost a full degree Celsius above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F).

7. Over half of U.S. states will legalize marijuana for at least medicinal purposes, and over half of those will also legalize marijuana for recreational use. Vaping will continue to be increasingly banned.

6. CERN’s plans to build a 100 kilometer particle accelerator will move forward while China’s plans to build a similarly sized particle accelerator will remain uncertain.

5. Tom Steyer will continue to gain unexpected support for President at the expense of Biden.

4. Bernie will gain the Democratic nomination in a brokered convention and will select a woman as his running mate.

3. Despite all of the saber rattling, 2020 will be a peaceful year.

2. Trump will not be removed from office.

1. The Battlestar Galactica Series coming in 2020 on NBC will have a unique storyline that will be well received by most Battlestar Galactica fans.

2020 Day 9: New Strain of Coronavirus found in Wuhan, China

Wuhan is the capital of Hubei province in central China. I stopped in Wuhan a year ago instead of Hong Kong on a flight between Austin and Bangkok. The flight on China Southern was half the price of flying other airlines, like Cathay Pacific. The problem I noticed was that the weather in Wuhan was much colder than in Austin or Thailand, and so I needed to pack warmer clothes just for the layover – not ideal. Also, on the return flight through China, even though my ticket showed a single stop, the airlines ended up making a second stop and everyone had to get off the plane and wait for a couple hours to go through a customs-like search. I remember one passenger shouting during this time how annoyed he was for this surprise experience. While I was also annoyed, I also found amusement in seeing another example of the multiverse working it’s magic. I could feel the universe where we didn’t have the unexpected stop, and also the universe where the ticket displayed correctly the extra stop. I saw the universe I was experience as one created by the interference pattern of these two other universes.

Today it is being reported that the Wuhan pneumonia outbreak “mystery illness” that has infected 60 people in the last 2 weeks is caused by a new coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a species of viruses blamed for such deadly illnesses as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses (HIV-1 is also an enveloped virus), which means they have an outer phospholipid bilayer membrane that includes some viral glycoproteins. The viral glycoproteins act as Trojan horse to gain entry into a host cell and also help the virus hide from the host immune system. Coronaviruses have a single-stranded, positive-sense, non-segmented, RNA genome which is the largest of all RNA viruses at around 30,000 bases. Because it is positive-sense and also contains a 5’ cap structure and 3’ poly (A) tail, it can mimic mRNA and be directly translated by the host of the replicase polyproteins, which are encoded by the approximately 20,000 base replicase gene. The replicase polyproteins assemble to form a viral replicase complex that, as you may guess, makes copies of the virus. The remaining 10,000 or so bases encode structural and accessory proteins. The four main structural proteins (all encoded within the 3’ end of the viral genome) are the spike, membrane, envelope, and nucelocapsid proteins. The spike protein has an N-terminal signal sequence that allows it to gain access to the host cell endoplasmic reticulum where it is heavily N-linked glycosylated. Three spike proteins join together to form a club-shape spike projection. These virion projections give the virus the appearance of a solar corona, from which their name derives. For a size perspective, the diameter of the coronaviruse virion is about 125 nm, so a meter long thin straw of diameter 125 nm filled with the virions would contain 8 million virions. For comparison, a single nucleotide is 0.33 nm long and so 30,000 bases has a length of 10,000 nm! Imagine fitting that into a 125 nm diameter virion.

Four identified coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1) are endemic in humans and cause up to 30% of respiratory tract infections worldwide each year. HCoV-NL63 has been associated with acute laryngotracheitis (croup). Coronoviruses have different tolerances to genetic variability with some (i.e. HCoV-229E) having little genetic variability worldwide and primarily isolated in humans and others (i.e. HCoV-OC43) showing high genetic variability across time and location. Most cases of coronavirus infection are self-limiting and will naturally run its course.

I’ve been sick with a respiratory infection for about two weeks. A few days ago I tried out my video-doctor health plan and got a prescription for Amoxicillin antibiotics. I also went to Accupuncture and purchased some Chinese herbs. I didn’t pick up the antibiotics prescription and I tried the herbs instead. That night I didn’t sleep well and I felt my body releasing a lot of toxins. My throat was still feeling scratching in the morning with nasal drip collecting in the back of my throat. Once I spit the thick yellow mucus out each morning, I felt fine. I decided to treat myself with water and rest over the next couple of days. I felt the universe where I was taking the antibiotics. I felt the universe where I had continued taking the herbs. I felt the universe where I was drinking more water and resting (and taking a zinc lounge now and then for good luck). Right now I still feel like I have a swollen throat, but it isn’t sore. I didn’t have much mucus this morning. My nasal passages are mostly clear. I expect the three universes to merge together tomorrow and I will feel infection free. Now if I could just find a way to clear the cedar pollen out of the air!

REFERENCE: Methods Mol Biol. 2015; Pehr and Perlman, Coronaviruses: An Overview of Their Replication and Pathogenesis