20200327F Day 87: Unemployment, Stock Market, and COVID-19 Cases are All Up

This week a record 3.28 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits. Yesterday, the Dow had it’s best 3-day gain since 1931 and today it finished the week up 12.8%, it’s best weekly advance since 1938. The S&P 500 rose 10.3% – best week since 2008. The Nasdaq rose 9.1% – best week since 2009. U.S. COVID-19 cases topped 100,000.  U.S. Influenza A cases topped 128,000 and Influenza B cases topped 113,000. Also, the largest relief package ever, at $2 trillion for coronavirus relief, was signed into law.

 

20200324T Day 84: 4th Best Percentage Gain in DOW

Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 4.10.56 PM
Top 20 percentage rises and falls of the DOW as of today

Today, the DOW had a gain of 11.37%, the best one day gain since Mar 15, 1933, which happened to be the best one day gain ever at 15.34%. Today’s gain narrowly beat out the gain of 11.36% on Sept. 21, 1932. Just last week, the DOW had the second largest one-day percentage drop ever of 12.93%. This was only a few days after the then 4th largest one-day drop of 9.99% (and don’t you wonder who kept it from being 10%). And this was only a few days after the then 11th largest one-day drop of 7.79%.

For the last four days, I’ve been sensing a change in my universe surfing. I am no longer interested in this universe where a pandemic sweeps the globe. In this universe, I consume more twitter than I have in a lifetime prior. My intention to create instead of consume has been challenged by my weak free will in the face of the universe. I have a choice now. I can continue to be pummeled by the huge waves of the universe sending me into this pandemic. Or I can strengthen my free will and surf to a new set of universes in which COVID-19 is not dominating the daily thoughts of myself or the world.

From what I know about universe surfing, I can’t do this alone. So, if you find yourself reading this, please join me in surfing to a universe in which SARS_CoV_2 and COVID-19 are not dominating the world’s psyche and are only a distance memory. Oh, and your retirement savings will also be higher in the universe I’m surfing to. I’m putting myself on an 80-day surfing plan from 4 days ago. Target date of June 8, 2020, the 160th day of this year.

 

20200319h Day 79: Number of new cases in China equals $IRX 13-week T-Bill Interest rate equals Zero

20200318_IRX_equal_zero

China announced that it had no new cases (excluding imported cases) of COVID-19 yesterday and the 13-week US Treasury Bill index (IRX) interest rate fell to 98.18% to 0.003%, within rounding of zero percent interest. The 5-year and longer treasure yields all rose as the US dollar and liquidity are now precious assets. March 18th was another volatile day for stocks. AAPL hit a low of $237.12, only a few dollars above the then all-time high of $233.47 that I blogged about in 2018: AAPL Stock Prediction for Oct 3, 2019. More interesting, the NASDAQ closed at 6989.84, below the 7560 prediction I felt “more than 50%” confident about in Aug 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index prediction for March 9, 2019. It’s interesting that I made that prediction for 2019 and it is now true in 2020. The NASDAQ actually fell below 7560 almost a week ago on March 12, 2020. Oh wow, I’m going back to look at 2019 and the NASDAQ on March 12, 2020 closed at 7591.03 and was 7505.92 the week before. So, very close to 7560 on March 9, 2019. Interesting! What I wrote back in August 2018 seems quite synchronistic to me now:

I’m feeling a universe where it is possible for me to sense large changes in the financial markets before they happen.  In this universe, I’m sensing a large change in the negative direction occurring either between October 5th and October 19th, on November 9th, or between December 26th and January 19th, 2019.  Based on this, I sense that there is a greater than 50% chance that on March 9, 2019, the NASDAQ Comp will be lower than 7,560, the value it was on March 9, 2018.

I’m more curious about why I feel compelled to make this prediction.  Only the future knows.

“Feeling” the direction of the market is risky business. If you were to ask me to feel the market now, I would likely stay with safe bets all based around the belief that a year from now, the US dollar will be of relatively lower value compared to other fiat currencies and precious metals. Partly because of this, and partly because the stock market has taken a beating due to the coronavirus pandemic, the NASDAQ, SP500, and most publicly traded stocks will be of higher value, priced in dollars, than they are now.

20200224M Day 55: Alphabet down 4.28% – I guess news travels fast ;)

Yesterday, I blogged that I was 20200223u Day 54: Surfing to a Universe where I work for Alphabet. Today, Alphabet stock is down 4.28% on my surfing move (Ha!).

Of course the financial news didn’t pick up on my surfing move and they blamed the drop of Alphabet on a 125nm diameter coronavirus. I mentioned a risking to stocks 30 days ago in 2020 Day 25: Wuhan Coronavirus in the Year of the Rat:

I’m feeling now a universe where the stock market is negatively affected by the Wuhan coronavirus.

The feeling I remember having then was more negative than the drop in prices today. which was the worst day in two years. I’m currently invested in a superposition of two universes – one where I’m fully invested in the market and one where I’m fully out of the market.

2020 Day 27: SP500 has largest single-day drop since Oct 2, 2019

The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all fell over 1.5% today. This is in alignment with the feeling I mentioned in 2020 Day 25: Wuhan Coronavirus in the Year of the Rat. However, the feeling I felt seemed to be further in the future. What’s more interesting to me is how I’ve been affected – specifically my desire to remove an old habit of checking the stock market. It seems that as my will power strengthened, the multiverse showed me her power and tested my will power until I eventually succumbed and checked the stock market. I now feel surrounded by lots of universes where I check the stock market multiple times daily. The multiverse amuses me when she shows herself to me in this fashion – humbling my ego that believes that free will alone can get me to where I want to go.

Coronavirus update:

  1. First coronavirus death in Beijing;
  2. 82 deaths and over 2,700 cases confirmed in mainland China;
  3. China reports that people can spread the coronavirus before symptoms, although CDC says no clear evidence that this is the case;
  4. Sri Lanka reports first case of Wuhan coronavirus;
  5. Cambodia reports first case of Wuhan coronavirus;
  6. Canada’s first two cases of Wuhan coronavirus are husband and wife;

2020 Day 16: 3.33 miles in 29:19

Having not run since 2020 Day 10: 3 miles in 27:20, I thought this morning would be a good day to see what running universe I was in. I noticed something interesting as I ran a slightly different route which caused me to run clockwise around a main loop rather than counter clockwise. During the first mile when I was running to the loop, I ran an 8-minute mile. But during the second mile when I was running against the flow that I’ve run every other time, I felt resistance, ran a slower 9 minute mile, and my right leg was starting to talk to me at the end. At 2.5 miles, I didn’t even feel like I could finish all 3 miles and wanted to stop. My pace was about a 10 minute mile at that point. Then I decided to just turn around and run counter clockwise around the loop. Immediately, I felt additional energy. I could feel my alignment with the universe in which I had more strength and more speed. A positive feedback loop started where as I believed more, I felt stronger, which caused me to believe more. As my watch buzzed me to let me know I had run 3 miles, I didn’t want to stop. I wondered when I would begin to loose energy. I thought to myself that I’d run 27:20 and stop to see how much farther I ran that last time. I still felt strong so I gave myself a stretch goal of running 3.25 miles. At 3.25 miles, I still felt strong and I saw the hill coming up that always gets me. As I approached the hill, I saw I was about to hit 3.33 miles, and so I stopped. I felt good about my final time of 29:19. It reminded me that 10+19=29.

In other news, the stock market rose strongly at the beginning of this 16th day of the month. I plan to start paying attention to the first day and 16th day of future months to see if I notice a pattern that matches this study of S&P 500 first day tendencies.

AAPL Stock Prediction for Oct 3, 2019

In NASDAQ Composite Index prediction for March 9, 2019, I was compelled to make a prediction about the stock market. I was feeling a large negative movement between Oct 5 and Oct 19, 2018 or on Nov 9, 2018.  While the NASDAQ did have significant moves down during both of these time periods, I’m wondering now if the feeling of large negative movement was coming from a more personal space based on my actual stock portfolio which is heavily weighted in Apple stock (AAPL).  On Oct 3, 2018, AAPL hit an all time high of $233.47 and today it is down over 20% from that high, opening at $178.37.  Could I surf to a universe where APPL stock is up over 25% from today by Oct 3, 2019?  In that universe, AAPL would be above it’s all time high price of $233.47.  While I can imagine how I could increase my odds of that universe, I do not feel a calling to do so due to the limited influence I believe I have on that event.  So, I’m left with a sense based primarily on wishful thinking that AAPL stock will hit a new all time high before Oct 3, 2019.