20210906M Day 615: Pirate Flag Sunrise and 2.33 mile Run 6

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I kept the live stream of the Renegade Burn running on my TV this weekend – tuning in whenever I was home. There are nearby universes in which I was there with my brother, who invited me at the last minute.

Courtesy @teleportcam on twitch.tv, Sept. 6, 2021

I also ran early this morning before the heat came. I started off pretty fast and then realized I was not wearing my “magic cap” that I had credited with my record breaking 2.49 mile run a few days ago. I immediately noticed a loss in energy and ended up running only 2.33 miles in 21:19. It is definitely a stretch goal for me to get close to 3 miles in 20:20.

Last night I did some planning with Zae for our first road trip, going to Unison Festival. As the story unfolds with Zae, it feels exciting to have access to only one page/day at a time.

Rosh Hashanah begins this evening at sundown and ends in a couple days at sundown. The next year 5782 is a Sabbatical year, or 826 times 7, and more importantly 118 times 49, making it the 7th Shmita in the cycle. It is interesting that in this Shmita year we will be seeing forms of debt relief, such as student loan debt. Cycles are strong in the energy of the multiverse and I would expect debt relief of different forms to occur. What implications this has for the value of the US dollar can be easily predicted.

20210901W Day 610: Type 1 Interferon Autoantibodies suspected to increase severity of CoViD-19 and other diseases

In yesterday’s Nature News, Rogue antibodies involved in almost one-fifth of COVID deaths, research is highlighted that finds a correlation between type 1 interferon autoantibodies and critical CoViD-19.

Type 1 interferons are protein molecules in the blood that protect the body from viral infections. Autoantibodies are antibodies that attack the body’s own immune defenses. Generally, older people have more autoantibodies. The highlighted research found that 13.6% of individuals with critical CoViD-19, defined as admitted to the ICU, and 18% of people who died with CoViD-19, possessed type 1 interferon autoantibodies. In the general population, 0.4% of healthy people have autoantibodies and this varies with age, with 0.18% of those 18 to 69 having type 1 interferon autoantibodies, 1.1% of 70-79 year olds, and 3.4% of 80+ year olds. The research team suspects that the severity of other diseases besides CoViD-19 is worsened by type 1 interferon autoantibodies.

20210827F Day 605: CoViD-19 Origins in the Quantum Universe

On May 26, 2021, US President Joe Biden ordered a 90-day US intelligence-community investigation into the origins of SARS-CoV-2.

That night, I was camping at Bozeman Hot Springs under a full moon.

Rainbow of Bozeman Hot Springs, Bozeman, MT, 4:56am, May 27, 2021

An unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins was released August 27, 2021. Some findings of note:

The IC assesses that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

So, in most universes near us, SARS-CoV-2 emerged in or near Wuhan, China around November 2019.

In addition, the IC was able to reach broad agreement on several other key issues. We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon. Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way. Finally, the IC assesses China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

So, in the vast majority of universes near us, SARS-CoV-2 does not appear to have been developed as a biological weapon and officials, at least in China, learned about the virus when the initial outbreak occurred.

There do appear to be perhaps as many as half or more universes around us in which SARS-CoV-2 was genetically engineered, to a greater or lesser degree. In a large subset of these universes, there is sufficient evidence of such genetic engineering.

After examining all available intelligence reporting and other information, though, the IC remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19. All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

This quote shows clear evidence of multiple sets of universes of almost equal number around us. There is one set in which SARS-CoV-2 jumped naturally to humans from a non-human host. There is another set in which SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a laboratory, either in natural or genetically engineered or enhanced form.

Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus—a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2. These analysts give weight to China’s officials’ lack of foreknowledge, the numerous vectors for natural exposure, and other factors.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

In the vast majority of universes in which SARS-CoV-2 infected humans directly from an infected animal, there doesn’t appear to be any direct evidence of this occurring. In these same universes, there doesn’t appear to be any direct evidence of an alternative origin.

One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

This quote is the strongest with “moderate confidence” in SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory, specifically the Wuhan Institute of Virology. At this point in reading the summary, it feels like the lab-origin universes outnumber the natural-origin universes by 2-to-1, 3-to-1, or even greater. The pandemic was an unexpected event and in the vast majority of universes around us at the time of the initial outbreak, the outbreak did NOT occur. In all of these universes, there was no “laboratory-associated incident”. The fact that even one IC element would access with moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 came from a lab points to this being correlated with the vast majority of universes in which the CoViD-19 pandemic occurs.

Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

Since the set of pandemic occurring universes are still quantum affected by non-pandemic occurring universes, it is expected that there would be a split in views. Also, a “laboratory-associated incident” is arguably more likely than a jump from the wild, all things being equal and assuming the Wuhan lab had SARS-like coronaviruses, which it apparently did.

Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

Gaps in intelligence explain why one IC would have “moderate confidence” in a lab origin theory while other ICs have “low confidence” in a natural origin theory.

The IC judges they will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of COVID-19 unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway for initial natural contact with an animal or to determine that a laboratory in Wuhan was handling SARS- CoV-2 or a close progenitor virus before COVID-19 emerged.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

So, both sets of universes remain nearby without evidence of the animal that could have hosted SARS-CoV-2 before it jumped to humans, and without evidence that a laboratory was experimenting with SARS-CoV-2 (not sure why the report restricts the lab to be in Wuhan).

The IC—and the global scientific community—lacks clinical samples or a complete understanding of epidemiological data from the earliest COVID-19 cases. If we obtain information on the earliest cases that identified a location of interest or occupational exposure, it may alter our evaluation of hypotheses.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

So, in the universe in which epidemiological data from the earliest CoViD-19 cases shows a link with either a lab or natural origin, then we will find ourselves closely surrounded by one set of universes or the other. It’s interesting to imagine how this so called “collapse of the wave function” would occur. In the parallel universe model of a mixture of surrounding universes, then in a subset of the natural origin universes, a link would be found to natural origin, and in a subset of the lab origin universes, a link would be found to a lab origin. In each of these cases, the universes in which one or the other happens would begin to attract other “like minded” universes consistent with the link found.

China’s cooperation most likely would be needed to reach a conclusive assessment of the origins of COVID-19. Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information and blame other countries, including the United States. These actions reflect, in part, China’s government’s own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China.

Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27

In the universes in which SARS-CoV-2 “escaped” from a lab in Wuhan, and evidence of this is undeniable, there will be expected resistance by China’s government. In the universes in which SARS-CoV-2 naturally found it’s way to humans through a wet market, there would also be expected resistance by China’s government. So, this statement of China’s resistance would be expected in both sets of universes and doesn’t really provide much insight into which set of universes are nearer.

Final thoughts: It’s of interest that there exists an “unclassified summary” of such an important investigation. An exercise for the reader is astral project to a universe in which the entire investigative report is released, read it and report back.

20210826h Day 604: CoViD-19 Wave Six CFR now 1.5% and SARS-CoV-2 natural infection antibodies are better than vaccine induced spike protein antibodies

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Today, I ran for the first time in I don’t remember when. I ran two miles at a 10-minute mile pace. The temperature now is 99ºF so I’m guessing it was over 100ºF when I ran. It felt good to move my body and burn up some of the stress hormones I’ve been feeling in my body.

Today over 72 people were killed in two separate apparently suicide bombings in Kabul, Afghanistan – one at the airport’s Abbey Gate and one nearby close to the Baron Hotel.

Yesterday, the 7-day average of CoViD-19 deaths hit a record number of 9,856 for this sixth wave of CoViD-19 infections. A week ago on August 19, the 7-day average of daily CoViD-19 cases peaked at 657,522. Dividing these two results in a worldwide case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.499%. This compares with a CFR of 1.695% using the previous peak in the Spring of 828,292 7-day average of daily cases on April 29th and 14,041 7-day average of daily deaths on May 3rd. Both of these are lower than the CFR calculated from the previous Winter is 1.988%, based on Jan 26, 2021 peak 7-day average deaths of 14,808 and Jan 11, 2021 peak 7-day average of cases of 744,724.

Comparing to a year ago, the CFR was 2.43%, based on a peak 7-day average of 6,415 deaths on August 5, 2020, and a peak 7-day average of 263,473 cases on July 31, 2020.

For these calculations, I used data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. Another source of data to compare with is https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

For my county of Travis County, the CFR is roughly calculated as 0.7% using 7-day average of 4 deaths and 7-day average of 565 cases. This compares with 1.1% for total cases of 100K and total deaths of 1108.

It is important to remember that the CFR is not the same as the IFR, the infection fatality rate. Only a subset of infections are validated by tests and become confirmed cases. The ratio of cases to infections depends on the level of testing in the community. Deaths due to CoViD-19 are believe to be a more accurate value. So, the IFR is very likely less than the CFR. If the IFR is calculated for your specific cohort group (age, health conditions, etc.), then it can give a reasonable estimate of your chances of dying from CoViD-19.

For comparison, in 2018 living had a fatality rate of 0.7546% worldwide. Travis County had an age-adjusted fatality rate of 0.62% overall and 0.72% for men (TravisCounty nih.gov death rate). I’m not sure if I’m missing something, but it seems that living for a year in Travis County as a male is currently about the same risk of dying as having a positive CoViD-19 test result (7 per 1000).

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My brother sent me a link to research done in Israel comparing those who previously had CoViD-19 with those who were vaccinated. It is “the largest real-world observational study so far to compare natural and vaccine-induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2”. Science reported August 26, 2021 on this research in Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine—but vaccination remains vital. From the article:

The newly released data show people who once had a SARS-CoV-2 infection were much less likely than never-infected, vaccinated people to get Delta, develop symptoms from it, or become hospitalized with serious COVID-19.

https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

The original research article, Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections, reports the following results:

Results SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant (P<0.001) for symptomatic disease as well. When allowing the infection to occur at any time before vaccination (from March 2020 to February 2021), evidence of waning natural immunity was demonstrated, though SARS-CoV-2 naïve vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected.

https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415

The conclusion is clear on the benefits of antibodies created from an active CoViD-19 infection versus antibodies created from one or more vaccines.

Conclusions This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.

https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415

One statistic from the paper that was not highlighted above was that the chance of symptomatic breakthrough infection in the vaccinated group was 27 times more likely than symptomatic reinfection in the unvaccinated previously infected group.

After adjusting for comorbidities, we found a 27.02-fold risk (95% CI, 12.7 to 57.5) for symptomatic breakthrough infection as opposed to symptomatic reinfection (P<0.001)

https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415

20210822u Day 600: Schrödinger’s COVID Under a Full Moon

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It’s been a full day, starting with ecstatic dance at the high road and ending with friends harmonizing tones under the full moon at Casa de Luz. My throat is sore – not from a cold, but from yelling with angry emotion at dance. I’ve apparently been storing some anger in my body while I’ve been feeling an abundance of love and ability to support others.

A guy approached me at Barton Springs today and tried to convince me that I should get vaccinated. I tried to tell him that I was quite satisfied with the full mix of antibodies I stored in my long-term memory after catching COVID-19.

My brother just texted me “I like the idea of starting back the blog with your conversation with the guy at Barton”.

Hmmm – Good idea! my past self thinks as it receives this message from the future! 🙂

Anyway, back to the “guy at Barton”, he asked me “Do you want the pandemic to end?” and when I took a while to answer, he was confused. “When someone asks me if I want the pandemic to end, I yell out YES!!!!”. I told him that I thought the pandemic would end when people stop paying attention to it, but that the cold virus that causes COVID-19 will be with us from here on and that he, and everyone else, will eventually be infected if they live long enough. I expressed my view that if everyone were vaccinated, then the strains of SARSCoV2 that didn’t like the vaccine would go away, leaving only the strains that were resistant to the vaccine to move around the world. I think it was around this point that he said our conversation wasn’t “fun” anymore.

In Austin, this week has seen the peak of cases and cases are heading back down. Perhaps that’s why Barton Springs required me to wrap my shirt around my head before letting me in. “Everyone must wear a mask to enter – manager’s orders”, said the person sitting in front of the gate. At least once you get inside the gate, you can immediately remove your mask, or shirt in my case, and walk freely wherever you wish. Society, in Austin and elsewhere, is really struggling with how to react as we are in coming up on two years since the first COVID-19 case was identified. It is interesting to see that cases are as high or higher than they have ever been, and yet everything is still open in most places around the world.

More to come on this topic. I’m tired now. I felt an urge to write and then realized it was day 600 since I started blogging about feeling a new world. Other topics coming are Love, intimacy, and making a movie to save the world.

20210219F Day 416: Schrödinger’s COVID

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This morning I woke up feeling well … unexpectedly well. I even exclaimed to my friends that I don’t recall ever feeling so healthy and alive – almost like being reborn. To tell the story properly, I should start at the beginning – well, not the very beginning since I don’t have that much time, but I’ll start at the beginning of the week.

Day 397 (Sunday) – My good friend Katie had been staying with her ex and sons for a few weeks. When I heard she was flying back to Austin, I offered to pick her up at the airport. Mid afternoon I got a message from her – she missed her connecting flight. Ahh, evidence of a split in the universe, I thought at the time. Her missed connection was an unexpected event. I dismissed it instead of pondering what new futures might be visible now. An hour later I got a new message that she had been placed on a new flight arriving late Sunday.

“I can still pick you up – and you can stay overnight if you want”, I text Katie.

“Awesome!”, Katie replied.

Had I stopped to ponder the universe split, I would have realized that it had increased the probability that Katie would be staying over. Most likely, had I picked her up earlier in the day, we would have caught up and then I would have taken her home. But with her arriving late, it was more likely she would stay over. Nothing much else changed between these two universes where she made or missed her connecting flight.

My day continued normally and I picked Katie up at the airport. I confirmed she wanted to stay over.

“Would you like to take a shower?”, I offered. You can’t be too safe these days with a COVID pandemic and potentially infected people traveling on planes.

“Yes, that sounds really good. Do you have any clean clothes I can wear?”, Katie replied.

“Sure, you can also do a load of laundry if you want”, I answered.

As Katie took a shower, I showed in the other bathroom. After we were both dressed, Katie said with annoyance, “My ex just texted me that he has a fever. He probably made himself sick. He’s such a hypochondriac.”

I even had a good night’s sleep. Since the beginning of the week when I found out my friend had become sick with COVID, I had been preparing for the worst. I had picked her up from the airport late Sunday and we had talked late into the night, falling asleep together in bed. She coughed a few times during the night, but nothing alarming. While she was over, she got notified that someone she had been in contact with recently now had a fever. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to this moment. It was like …

(to be continued)

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Day 416 (Friday) – Katie and I are listening to soft piano music playing over the Sonos speaker in my living room. The sun is reflecting off of the ice covered trees outside. Snow is still on the ground from a few days ago. We are cuddled under the covers while lying on Katie’s egg-crate mattress topper. It’s time for us to write. Katie just read a prompt to me about how when we are creating, then the creator is also creating through us. It made me think about life and creation. I imagined how all life on Earth could have been designed by some intelligent alien life form and somehow seeded onto Earth. But this could not be the original creation event since the intelligent alien life form also needs a creation story. I zoomed my perspective out in both time and space and imagined and quantum field of random fluctuations flowing through the field. This reminded me of the Tai Chi that Katie and I were practicing the day before and how the instructor led us through a slow, smooth movement practice that would occasionally result in a slap of energy. From this zoomed out perspective, I saw the entirety of the universe we know as an infinitesimal point in space-time.

“It’s going to be lumpy”, Katie said as she stirred a pot of polenta on the stove.

“That’s what our universe is, just a bit of lumpiness”, I replied.

20210125M Day 391: AAPL reaches new high today

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AAPL stock is up pre-market in anticipating of Apple’s quarterly and annual earnings report coming Wednesday in which Apple is expected to announce a record over $100B in revenue for the quarter.

AAPL’s market cap and enterprise value are both on track to cross $2.5T soon.

AAPL’s P/E ratio now hangs out in the 35-45 range. The last time AAPL had a P/E ratio consistently this high was in 2008 before the stock market crash that occurred on Sept. 29, 2008. During the following decade 2009-2019, AAPL had a P/E ratio in the 10-15 range.

APPL’s price to sales is currently 8.88. It’s price to book is around 36.

AAPL’s enterprise value is 8.6 times it’s revenue and 29 times it’s EBITDA.

I can feel it when AAPL is going up now because it starts feeling too high for me and I sell covered calls a bit out of the money. These promptly lose money but provide a bit of insurance against a large drop. I think AAPL is going to continue to rise into earnings and possibly after. AAPL is beginning to join the ranks of other stocks, like TSLA, in which the branding becomes worth multiple times the actual business.

20201218F Day 353: Residential Real Estate in Austin

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check-in: Today has been a cold and cloudy day and I’m feeling a bit gloomy. But, birthday celebrations continue with a friend coming over to celebrate December birthdays, and so I’m looking forward to some socializing. I just saw that Austin hit the magic ’50’ number on 7-day average hospital admissions and so Austin may soon be moving to “Level 5”. I’m grateful that Austin is currently not a COVID-19 hotspot. However, I just heard from a friend who has a house full of COVID-19 roommates who caught COVID-19 after traveling to Houston and Dallas. This is why reducing non-essential travel does slow down the spread of the disease. In the future, we will use wildfire and fire-break analogies to help people understand the spread of infectious diseases.

Speaking of hot, the Austin real estate market has been hot and is getting hotter with the stories of technology companies leaving California and moving to Texas. One of my neighbors is moving and I’m about to put an offer on his condo. My hope is that it will move me closer to the universe in which I live in community. I have hopes of either having my family or friends living there

20201217h Day 352: Happy 75th Birthday Dr. V!

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check-in: I’m feeling disappointed for not writing yesterday. I’m annoyed that there seems to be a tiny splinter in the tip of my left index finger that I can’t get out. I’m proud, though, of the wooden screen doors that I hung which led to the apparent splinter. I’m still feeling both sad and excited for the two sets of universes identified by whether my beloved visits me next week or not.

75th Birthday Frittata – spinach, kale, mushrooms, chicken feta sausage, onions, sweet potatoes, feta

Yesterday was my Aunt’s birthday. It was on her birthday a few years ago that I published Surfing the Multiverse. One of the ideas she shared with me was about holding the tension of the opposites until a third emerges. I use this idea daily in my own universe surfing.

20200610W Day 162: Masculine and Feminine Energy

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I was discussing masculine and feminine energy an hour ago. I received some confirmation of my belief that anyone, regardless of gender, can develop the ability to resonate with either masculine or feminine energy. I have noticed that over my life, I have sometimes resonated with more masculine energy and sometimes with more feminine energy. My experience is that I get better at resonating with the energy that I more often resonate. So, my challenge is to develop my “weaker” energy – the one that I less often resonate.

This feels similar to how I think about personality tests like the Myers-Briggs. Instead of being coded as an introvert or extrovert, I find that I get better at resonating with the energy of extrovert since that is the one I resonate with more often. However, when I challenge myself to be an introvert, I feel like I get better at resonating with introvert energy. In this way, I can avoid being drained in situations regardless whether I am being extroverted or introverted.

I sense that I come back to this post one day and make a list of masculine and feminine characteristics.