Author: J. Sands Loch

Student and teacher of reality in all its forms. I self-published my personal experience of discovering and trying to understand and use a model of reality based on the Many Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics: Surfing the Multiverse: Finding Happiness One Universe at a Time Available on Kindle and from Amazon, and found in blog post form at: SurfingTheUniverse.com

20200419u Day 110: Almost 2.5M confirmed COVID-19 Cases Worldwide

Two days ago in 20200417F Day 108: Surfing the Multiverse back through a Pandemic Wormhole, I noted:

It is looking now that the 10x/month rate is still on track from March 19 and the confirmed COVID-19 cases are expected to hit 2.5M by April 19.

and data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ shows 2,406,575 worldwide confirmed cases of COVID-19. I’m happy to see that the number of total cases is leveling off. One warning sign is the growing number of cases in Russia. If COVID-19 outbreaks are not contained quickly in Russia, then there could be 10x the number of cases in Russia by May 19th. As I continue surfing to a universe where SARS-CoV-2 returns to the wild, then something needs to change in Russia because the number of cases and deaths are currently increasing rapidly.

Screen Shot 2020-04-20 at 9.51.50 AM
Data for April 19, 2020, from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

In local news, I went on a bike ride with my brother. There were quite a few other bikers and life is beginning to return to normal in Santa Cruz. The beaches and walk along the beach were also full. Santa Cruz County has 104 cases and 2 deaths confirmed for COVID-19 out of a population of 300,000. It will be interesting to see what the serological testing shows in the county. New York plans to begin serological testing on Monday.

 

20200418S Day 109: Review of Recent COVID-19 Related Research

Santa Cruz, CA: Today has been a slow day, like all days under shelter-in-place seem to be. I walked to the farmer’s market and the grocery store. Both places had a much larger number of people wearing masks – about 60%. Social distancing was enforced through one-way aisles and tape markers on the ground.

It is still very difficult for me to be productive. Twitter is my main time suck at the moment. There is so much posting of what appears to me as misinformation. I think it’s time to educate myself and at least see what people are saying who have taken the time to write up and submit research papers.

The first paper I’d like to review is Broad Host Range of SARS-CoV-2 Predicted by Comparative and Structural Analysis of ACE2 in Vertebrates. The authors of this paper are trying to determine the structural similarity of ACE2, specifically the part of ACE2 involved in binding to SARS-CoV-2, across mammals and vertebrates. The first thing I notice is that the authors are from a diverse group of worldwide top-notch universities and organizations. Some points of interest to me are:

  1. There are 25 amino acids at the ACE2 binding site which are important for binding to SARA-CoV-2.
  2. Molecular phylogenetics shows that at least one human coronavirus (HCov-OC43) may have originated in cattle or swine. HCov-OC43 is a beta coronavirus that is now believed to have been the cause of an influenza pandemic in 1889-90.
  3. 18 out of 19 catarrhine primates analyzed scored “very high” and also had 25/25 identical binding residues for binding; and the 19th, the Angola colobus, scored “high” with at least 20/25 identical binding residues.
  4. 3/3 species of Cervid deer and 12/14 cetacean species also scored “high”.
  5. Camels and pigs both scored “low”.
  6. 9/9 species of Felids scored “medium” – there have been reports that a domestic cat became infected with SARS-CoV-2.
  7. 3/3 species of pangolins scored “low” or “very low” for ACE2 binding.
  8. The ACE2 RBD residues critical for effective binding to SARS-CoV-2 S protein are S19, Q24, T27, F28, D30, K31, H34, E35, E37, D38, Y41, Q42, L45, L79, M82, Y83, N330, K353, G354, D355, R357, and R393. The ACE2 RBD glycosylation sites N53, N90 and N322 were also included.
  9. “Very High” scores have at least 23/25 matching residues, and 7/7 of the residues K353, K31, E35, M82, N53, N90 and N322, and do not have N79, and the up to 2 non-matching residues have conservative substitutions.
  10. “High” scores have at least 20/25 matching residues, have K353, have only conservative substitutions at K31 and E35, do not have N79, and up to one non-conservative substitutions among the up to 5 non-identical residues.
  11. “Medium” scores have at least 20/25 matching residues, only conservative substitutions at K353, K31, and E35, and up to two non-conservative substitutions in the 5 non-identical residues.

The second paper I noticed was Comparative dynamic aerosol efficiencies of three emergent coronaviruses and the unusual persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosol suspensions. The title says it all – the researches found that SARS-CoV-2 “generally maintains infectivity when airborne over short distances, in contrast to either comparator betacoronavirus”.

A third paper, Regulation of angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in obesity: implications for COVID-19, found increased expression of lung ACE2 in obese mice.

A fourth paper, Transcriptional Difference between SARS-COV-2 and other Human Coronaviruses Revealed by Sub-genomic RNA Profiling, found that “SARS-COV-2 has significantly elevated expression of the Spike gene, which may contribute to its high transmissibility.”

In a fifth paper, COVID-19 pandemic: A Hill type mathematical model predicts the US death number and the reopening date, the author predicts that “by the mid June or early July 2020, the outbreak will strongly decay and the US will have about 800K confirmed cases and less than 50K deaths.”

In a sixth paper, Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs, the authors find that males have delayed viral clearance after infection (by 2 days) and that the testes was one of the highest tissue sites of ACE2 expression.

And finally, a seventh paper which seems like a good one to stop with for now: Revealing variants in SARS-CoV-2 interaction domain of ACE2 and loss of function intolerance through analysis of >200,000 exomes. This one has a lay summary which sounds significantly enough to me on first reading to quote in entirety here:

Lay summary: Our researchers took a look at a sequence of DNA known as the ACE2 gene. This gene is most well known for its role in regulating blood pressure. But in recent times, it’s drawn a lot of attention from the scientific community because it may also serve as a doorway of sorts, enabling viruses like SARS-CoV-2 to infect cells. Our researchers looked at the ACE2 gene in more than 200,000 people, comparing their exact DNA sequences to see where there are differences among people. Variation in the DNA sequence of a gene is common and is sometimes meaningless. But other times, small changes in the DNA sequence can alter the protein that is made from that gene. In this case the ACE2 gene makes the ACE2 protein, which is what the SARS-CoV-2 virus interacts with. We found a lot of variation between individuals and checked to see if that variation coincided with any traits (i.e., people with variant X tend to have high blood pressure more often than people without variant X). All of the traits we looked at were non-COVID-19-related traits, meaning we haven’t asked these people anything about COVID-19 yet (this is because these DNA sequences were collected before the pandemic). We found that there are a number of variations observed among people in a specific part of the ACE2 gene. These variations are expected to alter the shape or functionality of a specific part of the ACE2 protein: The part that interacts with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We don’t yet know what the real-life significance of this variation is, but it’s possible that these variants decrease the protein’s ability to interact with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, thus decreasing the person’s likelihood of being infected. We can speculate that there will be a spectrum of vulnerability to COVID-19 among people, where some people are more vulnerable than others, and that variants in this part of the ACE2 gene may be one of the reasons. The research we presented here shines a light on this part of the ACE2 gene and may give future researchers a direction to go in as they try to figure out what makes people vulnerable to COVID-19 and similar viruses.

Some key points mentioned in this paper:

  1. ACE2 is on the X chromosome and because males have only one X chromosome, males carry only one copy of the ACE2 gene.
  2. 332 coding variants were found that affected the ACE2 coding sequence. 16 of these were loss of function mutations. 11 coding variants changed specific amino acids that interact with SARS-CoV-2. 29 coding variants were nearby, within two amino acids.
  3. Two of the most found alleles are chrX:15600835:T:C / p.K26R (allele frequency 0.5%), chrX:15600857:A:G / p.S19P (very rare except in African ancestry with allele freq of 0.1-0.2%)
  4. A few more residues of interest that I saw were G352V, D355N, A396T, N397D, F400L, T27A, E35K, E37K, L39P, F40L, S43N, A80G, M82I, P84A, and L27F (male only).

 

20200417F Day 108: Surfing the Multiverse back through a Pandemic Wormhole

I amuse myself by viewing my experiences through the lens of the multi-world interpretation of quantum mechanics. I began documenting this wormhole surfing experience 108 days ago in almost daily blog posts starting with 2020 Day 1: Seeing is Believing – Good Morning New Universe!. After 80 days, I didn’t recognize the new universe I was in and yet each of the 80 days was connected to the one prior in a smooth fashion. I summarized the first 80 days in 20200320F Day 80: First 80 Days of Surfing into a Pandemic. On that day I also decided to surf out of the pandemic universe, partly as an experiment and partly as a desire to return to a universe in which I could dine in at a restaurant and do other things I had taken for granted before.

In 20200321S Day 81: Three to the Fourth Power is Eighty-One, I talked about exponential growth and documented the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases worldwide:

  • 14 days to go from 1 to 10 cases by Dec 26, 2019
  • 14 days to go from 10 to 100 cases by Jan 9, 2020
  • 14 days to go from 100 to 1000 cases by Jan 23, 2020
  • 7 days to go from 1000 to 10000 cases by Jan 30, 2020
  • 35 days to go from 10000 to 100000 cases by Mar 5, 2020, as the coronavirus epidemic subsided in China and moved to the rest of the world
  • 14 days to go from 100k to 250k cases by Mar 19, 2020

In 2-3 more weeks, the math of exponential growth shows that there will be over 1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 if it continues at the same growth as the last few weeks.

Well, according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, the number of worldwide confirmed cases of COVID-19 crossed 1 million on April 2, 2020, exactly 14 days later. I also wrote:

And if we continue at this 10x/month rate for another month or two, the number of cases go to 10M after 1 month and 100M after 2 months. This is not to be alarmist – it is just math.

It is looking now that the 10x/month rate is still on track from March 19 and the confirmed COVID-19 cases are expected to hit 2.5M by April 19.

As I continue surfing out of this pandemic wormhole, the 10x/month rate should stay in a farther away universes and the rate will look much less in my universe timeline. If I can exit the wormhole by my target date of June 8th, and if on that date most countries are back to normal, then the 10x rate/month rate needs to reduce to near zero growth, which would imply the total number of cases are slightly growing at just above 1x rate/month. I don’t have the math handy for a smooth function to get there by June 8th, but I would estimate that 7M is a safe upper bound by June 19th, assuming a double to 5M by May 19 and a 1.4x rate of growth by June 19th.

In 20200322u Day 82: Santa Cruz Shelter in Place, the county I’m staying in issued a shelter-in-place order.

20200322_SantaCruzSurfer

Updates noted in this post:

  1. New York cases of COVID-19 rise above 15,000. US cases rise above 30,000. Italy has over 60,000 cases. Worldwide cases rise above 330,000.
  2. US Senator Rand Paul because the first US senator to test positive for COVID-19.
  3. Locally, Santa Cruz County in CA has only reported 15 cases and Travis County in TX has reported 79 cases.
  4. The national guard is being mobilized for states that have the worst outbreaks.

and on the financial side, I noted:

In financial news, as much as I want to call a market bottom, I think the next week is going to be rough. The best bet for a market uplift is if the US congress can agree on a relief package for individuals and businesses.

In 20200323M Day 83: Lone Fisherman, Four Horses, and a #COVID19 Pandemic, I wrote:

While COVID-19 is continuing to spread as the math predicts, I’m feeling more optimistic that it’s possible fo me to surf to a universe where COVID-19 is not seen as anything more than a really bad flu virus. The universe I sense is one where the 80+% of people who experiences mild or no symptoms from being infected with SARS_CoV_2 slowly build up a herd immunity across the globe.

and the next day in 20200324T Day 84: 4th Best Percentage Gain in DOW, I wrote:

From what I know about universe surfing, I can’t do this alone. So, if you find yourself reading this, please join me in surfing to a universe in which SARS_CoV_2 and COVID-19 are not dominating the world’s psyche and are only a distance memory. Oh, and your retirement savings will also be higher in the universe I’m surfing to. I’m putting myself on an 80-day surfing plan from 4 days ago. Target date of June 8, 2020, the 160th day of this year.

In 20200325W Day 85: RV Demolition on Day 10 of 15 Days to Slow The Spread, I continued to feel the movement through new universes as the Democrats and Republicans worked together:

The US senate passed 96-0 a $2 Trillion bill to assist individuals and companies affected by COVID-19. It feels good to be in a universe where the two main US political parties work together to write bills.

In 20200326h Day 86: 74 days until June 8th, I gave some specifics about the universe I’m using free will to move towards:

When I imagine June 8th, it feels like just another day in the parallel reality without a coronavirus pandemic spreading across the world. And yet I know COVID-19 outbreaks will most likely still be occurring. The universe I sense and wish to surf to has the following characteristics:

  1. I don’t think about or talk to anyone about coronaviruses or pandemics;
  2. Everyone I know who wants a job, has a job;
  3. The local newspaper only has an occasionally story about a new local coronavirus case and there are no sustained outbreaks nearby;
  4. Daily whitehouse.gov press briefings are no longer happening;
  5. Doctors have a standard treatment procedure for COVID-19 that brings the CFR down to the same level as seasonal flu;
  6. The stock market has recovered somewhat and volatility is rare;
  7. Unfortunately, the confirmed number of COVID-19 cases and deaths will have far surpassed the number of confirmed number of Influenza cases and deaths; and
  8. Grocery stores are fully stocked and N95 masks are available at normal prices.

A short blog post 20200327F Day 87: Unemployment, Stock Market, and COVID-19 Cases are All Up noted:

This week a record 3.28 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits. Yesterday, the Dow had it’s best 3-day gain since 1931 and today it finished the week up 12.8%, it’s best weekly advance since 1938. The S&P 500 rose 10.3% – best week since 2008. The Nasdaq rose 9.1% – best week since 2009. U.S. COVID-19 cases topped 100,000.  U.S. Influenza A cases topped 128,000 and Influenza B cases topped 113,000. Also, the largest relief package ever, at $2 trillion for coronavirus relief, was signed into law.

In 20200328 Day 88: World War C – Humans vs. Coronaviruses, I talked about the world response to the coronavirus pandemic has been similar in some ways to a world war. Having not lived through a world war, it is difficult for me to imagine or compare. I also defined a few surfing terms, including:

Parallel Life Exploration (PLE) is one universe surfing technique that I use to help me understand what is going on in my own universe. Through PLE, I can get a fuller picture of my Quantum Self and also understand the Quantum Environment in which my Quantum Self is existing.

In 20200329 Day 89: Back to the Future, I recorded that the “15 days to flatten the curve” had been extended to 45 days. I also wrote about my target date, June 8th, to exit the pandemic wormhole:

I’m still hoping to intercept a future – to head in a way back to the future of a parallel time line that I was in before I started daily (more or less) blogging 89 days ago. I’ve somewhat arbitrarily selected June 8, 2020, as the date I wish to intercept. Or, perhaps, I’ve sent myself a message from the future that caused me to pick that date for some reason.

In 20200330 Day 90: COVID-19 Vaccine Development in the Multiverse, I discussed an article highlighting some of the hurdles that will have to be overcome in developing a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. I also noted:

So, there are universes in which COVID-19 is not a threat to the world. Many of these involve a vaccine that is developed and tested over the next 18 months. Which vaccine it will be, and how immune enhancement will be avoided, will depend on the universe.

In 20200331 Day 91: How Chloroquine affects Viruses in the Multiverse, I looked at a possible ripple backwards in time, by analyzing a paper published in 2003:

Since the COVID-19 pandemic is such a big effect on the world right now, I was curious if ripples of this event could be felt in the past. I found the following:

1. Effects of Chloroquine on viral infections, an old drug against today’s diseases, Savarino et. al., Nov. 2003

In 20200401W Day 92: 5 April Fools Jokes in Distance Universes, I told the following April Fools Jokes that would be Jokes in another universe, but were true in our timeline:

  1. “Foreign-flagged cruise ships can no longer dock in the U.S.” (Ha!). But in our universe today, the coast guard tells ships with COVID-19 to stay away from U.S. ports: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/01/825205607/coast-guard-tells-cruise-ships-with-covid-19-cases-to-stay-away-from-u-s-ports
  2. “A single person became infected with a novel coronavirus and spread it to almost a million people in 3 months” (Ha!). But in our universe today, 934,519 cases of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus.
  3. “Don’t take Zantac, it was just discovered that it causes cancer.” (Ha!). But in our universe today, FDA orders Zantac to be pulled from shelves because it contains NDMA, a cancer causing substance.
  4. “Everyone has to start wearing masks now whenever they go shopping.” (Ha!). But in our universe today, Pres. Trump is reported as being “sympathetic” to the idea of having all Americans wear masks.
  5. “The IRS is going to send people money instead of taxing them.” (Ha!). But in our universe, everyone is going to get up to $1200.

In 20200402F Day 93: Human Coronaviruses in the Multiverse, I wrote:

Yesterday, I clearly felt two distinct sets of universes. In one set, the world is in a state of crisis and fear due to a novel coronavirus that is causing a fast spreading pandemic of deadly respiratory disease. In the other set, the world is in a state of peace and prosperity. I can sense wormholes connecting to the two sets of universes.

and talked about the different ends of the wormhole that I’m trying to surf through. I also looked at other coronaviruses that are endemic in the world.

In 20200403F-05u Days 94-96: Long Stock Picks for June 8th and Beyond, I listed some stocks I purchased on that day. I just checked the return of the stock picks and it matched  the S&P500 over the last 2 weeks, a little over 15%.

Screen Shot 2020-04-17 at 5.44.11 PM

In 20200406M Day 97: Ying Ying and Le Le Make a Baby Giant Panda in Many Universes, a happy post about one positive outcome of shelter in place.

In 20200407T Day 98: Santa Cruz Moonset Sunrise Sunset Moonrise, it was a full moon and I got to start and end my day with the moon and the sun.

In 20200408W Day 99: Bernie beats Trump in one Universe and Suspends Campaign in Another, I made a prediction:

Given the merger of two sets of universes we are currently experiencing, COVID-19 pandemic in one set and no pandemic in the other set, there will be ripple effects that create unexpected events. While Trump and Biden are the two horses to bet on for President of the U.S. 2021-2024, a third horse is likely to emerge from the tension of these two opposites.

In 20200409h Day 100: First 100 Days in a Pandemic Wormhole in NY Daily News Front Page Headlines, I reviewed the first 100 days of the pandemic through front page headlines of the NY Daily News.

I took a picture of closed beaches in Santa Cruz in 20200410F Day 101: Man walks safety Tape at Seabright Beach.

In 20200411S Day 102: Sheltering Solo, I wrote:

In going down the wormhole of the coronavirus pandemic, I found myself consuming more and creating less. So, to extract myself from the coronavirus pandemic set of universes, I should have an easier time if I also move toward creating more and consuming less. I’m still targeting June 8th, 2020, as the date to exit this pandemic wormhole and look for a new wormhole to enter.

In 20200412u Day 103: Stock Market Thoughts and Predictions, I talked about the huge bets against the market that were made by hedge funds before the pandemic. I wrote:

My thoughts on where the stock market is going is all of the above. It will drop due to the increasing costs of the pandemic, it will rise due to the monetary and governmental stimulus, and it will stay the same due to the balance of these two. There are a set of universes for each of these three scenarios and I would like to plan so that my portfolio stays roughly the same in each of these cases.  For bonds, I like floating over fixed, shorter over longer, and treasuries over non-treasuries. For real estate, I like residential over commercial. For equities, I like American over non-American – although the stronger dollar is going to be a weight on American companies. For currencies, I like the Dollar over the Euro and Yuan and the Yen over the Dollar. For precious metals, I like Silver over Gold. There is a high likelihood that one or more fiat currencies experiences hyper inflation and the Dollar is not immune.

In 20200413M Day 104: Dr. Robin Armstrong, M.D. in Texas, Interview with Joe Piscopo about COVID-19 Treatment at Nursing Home, I wrote about a doctor in a Texas nursing home treating COVID-19 patients with Hydroxychloroquine.

In 20200414T Day 105: Earth Population 7 Billion, 777 Million, 777 Thousand, 777, I marked the passing of the world population past 7,777,777,777 people and calculated the expected mortality rate for 2020 to be 0.7770%, or 60,437,080 people, after accounting for an anticipated and estimated 1,371,080 additional deaths due to COVID-19.

In 20200415W Day 106: U.S. Federal Taxes are Due in Most Universes, I wrote:

So, we are definitely in a wormhole and surrounded by a thin layer of universes in which taxes are delayed by 3 months, which is inside a much, much thicker layer of universes in which taxes are due today! I’m trying to surf to the universes past the thin layer of COVID-19 pandemic universes in this wormhole I surfed into. So, I spent all day today working on my taxes and filed them electronically, as I would in many of the universes in which there is no pandemic.

And yesterday, in 20200416h Day 107: Behind the Curve, I wrote a short post on a flat earth documentary I watched.

I’m looking forward to the next 52 days until June 8th. Today, Texas began relaxing shelter-in-place restrictions and I expect California and other states to follow soon.

 

 

 

20200416h Day 107: Behind the Curve

I just finished watching Behind the Curve, a documentary about people who believe that the Earth is flat instead of a globe. For these people, the rest of the world believes in a conspiracy that the Earth is a globe. This belief is rooted in a belief that scientific research is censored and only research allowed to be published is that which aligns with the dogma of the community in power.

 

20200415W Day 106: U.S. Federal Taxes are Due in Most Universes

Santa Cruz, CA: April 15th is a day that is usually filled with last minute tax filers trying to frantically finish their U.S. taxes and mail them in before midnight, or file them electronically. Some years, the 15th falls on a weekend and people get an extra day or two. This year, in the timeline of most everyone reading this, the tax deadline has been extended by 3 months! This is quite unusual and unexpected, as Benjamin Franklin famously noted.

image

So, we are definitely in a wormhole and surrounded by a thin layer of universes in which taxes are delayed by 3 months, which is inside a much, much thicker layer of universes in which taxes are due today! I’m trying to surf to the universes past the thin layer of COVID-19 pandemic universes in this wormhole I surfed into. So, I spent all day today working on my taxes and filed them electronically, as I would in many of the universes in which there is no pandemic.