Category: Predictions

20200319h Day 79: Number of new cases in China equals $IRX 13-week T-Bill Interest rate equals Zero

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China announced that it had no new cases (excluding imported cases) of COVID-19 yesterday and the 13-week US Treasury Bill index (IRX) interest rate fell to 98.18% to 0.003%, within rounding of zero percent interest. The 5-year and longer treasure yields all rose as the US dollar and liquidity are now precious assets. March 18th was another volatile day for stocks. AAPL hit a low of $237.12, only a few dollars above the then all-time high of $233.47 that I blogged about in 2018: AAPL Stock Prediction for Oct 3, 2019. More interesting, the NASDAQ closed at 6989.84, below the 7560 prediction I felt “more than 50%” confident about in Aug 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index prediction for March 9, 2019. It’s interesting that I made that prediction for 2019 and it is now true in 2020. The NASDAQ actually fell below 7560 almost a week ago on March 12, 2020. Oh wow, I’m going back to look at 2019 and the NASDAQ on March 12, 2020 closed at 7591.03 and was 7505.92 the week before. So, very close to 7560 on March 9, 2019. Interesting! What I wrote back in August 2018 seems quite synchronistic to me now:

I’m feeling a universe where it is possible for me to sense large changes in the financial markets before they happen.  In this universe, I’m sensing a large change in the negative direction occurring either between October 5th and October 19th, on November 9th, or between December 26th and January 19th, 2019.  Based on this, I sense that there is a greater than 50% chance that on March 9, 2019, the NASDAQ Comp will be lower than 7,560, the value it was on March 9, 2018.

I’m more curious about why I feel compelled to make this prediction.  Only the future knows.

“Feeling” the direction of the market is risky business. If you were to ask me to feel the market now, I would likely stay with safe bets all based around the belief that a year from now, the US dollar will be of relatively lower value compared to other fiat currencies and precious metals. Partly because of this, and partly because the stock market has taken a beating due to the coronavirus pandemic, the NASDAQ, SP500, and most publicly traded stocks will be of higher value, priced in dollars, than they are now.

20200219W Day 50: Quantum Analysis of Debate Shows Bernie Likely to Win Most Pledged Delegates

One of the final questions to each candidate was:

If a candidate does not win a majority of the delegates, will you support the selection of the candidate with the most delegates?

All but Bernie said that they wanted to abide by the rules of the Democratic Party. That’s an interesting response that, if made from a self-interest standpoint, would mean that ALL of the candidates on stage believed that Bernie would receive the most delegates of all the candidates – at least most of the pledged delegates anyway.

If all of the candidates are accurately feeling the possible futures and their likelihood, then all of them are consistent in believing that Bernie will likely win the most pledged delegates.

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20200214F Day 45: Near Universe where 2019 Novel Coronavirus is in Austin

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Today, the CDC announced that individuals who display flu-like symptoms and who test negative for the flu should be tested for coronavirus. This is to start in a few of the larger cities (e.g. San Francisco, New York). Also today, I went to the urgent care with my partner to get tested for the flu. She has flu-like symptoms and tested negative for the flu. We asked about testing for novel coronavirus and the doctor had heard something about it being tested in some cities. She told us not to worry because COVID-19 has only a 2% mortality rate and that the flu kills many more people. She seemed to imply that the flu has a higher mortality rate, but I didn’t want to get into a math lesson with her when I figured she was just trying to ease our worries. “The only coronavirus confirmed case is in quarantine in San Antonio”, she said. She also mentioned that a number of people had been in today with flu symptoms and for some reason the flu tests were coming back negative. “Maybe something wrong with the flu tests”, she said. I mentioned that we had just flown in the day before from California. This didn’t seem to raise any concern. She knew about the Diamond Princess cases – she called the ship the “death ship” and was appalled that people were being kept on it instead of being quarentined in their own country.

I did notice the sign on the front door about letting them know if you believe you may have been exposed to COVID-19. I’m curious if the doctor would have still welcomed us with a handshake if we came in wearing masks.

20200211T Day 42: Surfing to a Universe where I analyze viral genomes

As an experiment, I’m going to try surfing to a universe where I analyze viral genomes. I had an early interest in the novel coronavirus outbreak over a month ago.  I felt myself moving close to universes where there was a coronavirus pandemic in 2020 Day 17: Wuhan Coronavirus infections in Thailand and Japan in which I wrote:

This morning I thought it would be interesting to use this blog as a way to experiment with quantum feeling parallel worlds. My hypothesis is that parallel worlds can be sensed, and that the feeling of sensing a parallel world is correlated with the feeling of a synchronicity, and furthermore that the synchronicity is related to an event that ties the parallel worlds together. For example, eight days ago I sensed a parallel world in which the Wuhan Coronavirus was a bigger event than it was in this world.

There’s not currently a pandemic in the strictest sense of the word, with the only country experiencing an outbreak thus far being China (ignoring the Diamond Princess cruise ship that recently had a doubling of cases to 135). The novel coronavirus has been provisionally named 2019-nCoV. A new name, SARS-CoV-2, has been proposed by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. The disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named by the WHO as COVID-19.

In the universes where I analyze viral genomes, I am almost certainly analyzing SARS-CoV-2. I’m curious where this universe surfing will lead …

2020 Day 20: Twenty predictions for 2020

20. The U.S. Congress will continue to vote primarily along party lines (Duh). This will increase the chance of a third-party movement gaining momentum.

19. The Wuhan coronavirus will spread in a similar way as other SARS-like coronaviruses. All cities with direct flights to Wuhan will be infected.

18. I will run 5 miles at a 9-min mile pace, 4 miles at an 8.5-min mile pace, 3 miles at an 8-min mile pace, 2 miles at a 7.5-min mile pace, and 1 mile in 6.5 min.

17. I will update this blog from at least two other countries.

16. Apple will have an exciting “one more thing”.

15. AMD will continue to take away server market share from Intel.

14. A 3rd-party candidate will shake up the U.S. presidential election.

13. Alan Greenspan’s coined phrase irrational exuberance will become a trending hash tag.

12. Religions across the world will reclaim their role as protectors of the long-term survival of humanity by joining together with a common voice against climate change.

11. Gasoline prices, Gold, and Bitcoin will spike higher with Gold hitting $2000/oz and Bitcoin topping $20,000.

10. April will be a tough month for the stock market, which will end 2020 roughly even after a rollercoaster of a year.

9. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will remain a Supreme Court justice longer than Trump will remain President.

8. Combined global land and ocean surface temperature for August 2020 will be almost a full degree Celsius above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F).

7. Over half of U.S. states will legalize marijuana for at least medicinal purposes, and over half of those will also legalize marijuana for recreational use. Vaping will continue to be increasingly banned.

6. CERN’s plans to build a 100 kilometer particle accelerator will move forward while China’s plans to build a similarly sized particle accelerator will remain uncertain.

5. Tom Steyer will continue to gain unexpected support for President at the expense of Biden.

4. Bernie will gain the Democratic nomination in a brokered convention and will select a woman as his running mate.

3. Despite all of the saber rattling, 2020 will be a peaceful year.

2. Trump will not be removed from office.

1. The Battlestar Galactica Series coming in 2020 on NBC will have a unique storyline that will be well received by most Battlestar Galactica fans.