Money – Page 3 – surfing the universe

20200403F-05u Days 94-96: Long Stock Picks for June 8th and Beyond

My brother asked me for stock picks for Monday and this is the list I gave him, with prices as of the end of the day last Friday, April 3rd. Once the U.S. makes it past June 8th, the following stocks should, as a group, be a diversified portfolio that will beat the performance of the SP500 (SPY=248.19, S&P=2488.65). I plan to track them from here until June 8th, and until the end of the year.

20200404_StockPicks — Stock Prices end of day April 3rd, 2020

I noticed the post yesterday has the wrong day of the week (0402F). It should have been “0402h”. I’m sure the fact that I wrote it on Friday contributed to this mistake. But, it could also be explained by universes colliding. I hope to get back to posting every day, at least until day 160 of this year, June 8th, by which time I hope to be back in a universe in which I’m rarely thinking about or posting about coronaviruses or pandemics.

Today I experienced merging back into a universe I was in a week or so ago. Before the California shelter-in-place order for Santa Cruz County, I had planned to rent a room in a community house. Then, when the initial order was until April 7th, I delayed my move in until that date. Later, when the initial order was extended until May 3rd, I decided to stay where I am until the end of April. However, after feeling into the different universes, I feeling a stronger alignment with the universe where I move in April 7th. I spoke with the owner of the house this morning, and now plan to move in on that date. I wonder if this will pull closer to me universes where the Santa Cruz County shelter-in-place order ends earlier than May 3rd, or at least doesn’t get extended longer.

Some other sets of universes merging this weekend are:

Universes where hydroxychloroquine is or is not part of the treatment for COVID-19 patients (Ref: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/politics/white-house-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-disagreement/index.html);
Tigers at US zoo test positive for SARS-CoV-2, bringing us closer to the universes in which COVID-19 is spread via pets;
Japan has not yet, but may, declare a state of emergency due to COVID-19; and
The US has COVID-19 outbreaks under control or not – Dr. Fauci says the US doesn’t and is instead struggling.

20200327F Day 87: Unemployment, Stock Market, and COVID-19 Cases are All Up

This week a record 3.28 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits. Yesterday, the Dow had it’s best 3-day gain since 1931 and today it finished the week up 12.8%, it’s best weekly advance since 1938. The S&P 500 rose 10.3% – best week since 2008. The Nasdaq rose 9.1% – best week since 2009. U.S. COVID-19 cases topped 100,000. U.S. Influenza A cases topped 128,000 and Influenza B cases topped 113,000. Also, the largest relief package ever, at $2 trillion for coronavirus relief, was signed into law.

20200324T Day 84: 4th Best Percentage Gain in DOW

Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 4.10.56 PM — Top 20 percentage rises and falls of the DOW as of today

Today, the DOW had a gain of 11.37%, the best one day gain since Mar 15, 1933, which happened to be the best one day gain ever at 15.34%. Today’s gain narrowly beat out the gain of 11.36% on Sept. 21, 1932. Just last week, the DOW had the second largest one-day percentage drop ever of 12.93%. This was only a few days after the then 4th largest one-day drop of 9.99% (and don’t you wonder who kept it from being 10%). And this was only a few days after the then 11th largest one-day drop of 7.79%.

For the last four days, I’ve been sensing a change in my universe surfing. I am no longer interested in this universe where a pandemic sweeps the globe. In this universe, I consume more twitter than I have in a lifetime prior. My intention to create instead of consume has been challenged by my weak free will in the face of the universe. I have a choice now. I can continue to be pummeled by the huge waves of the universe sending me into this pandemic. Or I can strengthen my free will and surf to a new set of universes in which COVID-19 is not dominating the daily thoughts of myself or the world.

From what I know about universe surfing, I can’t do this alone. So, if you find yourself reading this, please join me in surfing to a universe in which SARS_CoV_2 and COVID-19 are not dominating the world’s psyche and are only a distance memory. Oh, and your retirement savings will also be higher in the universe I’m surfing to. I’m putting myself on an 80-day surfing plan from 4 days ago. Target date of June 8, 2020, the 160th day of this year.

20200319h Day 79: Number of new cases in China equals $IRX 13-week T-Bill Interest rate equals Zero

20200318_IRX_equal_zero

China announced that it had no new cases (excluding imported cases) of COVID-19 yesterday and the 13-week US Treasury Bill index (IRX) interest rate fell to 98.18% to 0.003%, within rounding of zero percent interest. The 5-year and longer treasure yields all rose as the US dollar and liquidity are now precious assets. March 18th was another volatile day for stocks. AAPL hit a low of $237.12, only a few dollars above the then all-time high of $233.47 that I blogged about in 2018: AAPL Stock Prediction for Oct 3, 2019. More interesting, the NASDAQ closed at 6989.84, below the 7560 prediction I felt “more than 50%” confident about in Aug 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index prediction for March 9, 2019. It’s interesting that I made that prediction for 2019 and it is now true in 2020. The NASDAQ actually fell below 7560 almost a week ago on March 12, 2020. Oh wow, I’m going back to look at 2019 and the NASDAQ on March 12, 2020 closed at 7591.03 and was 7505.92 the week before. So, very close to 7560 on March 9, 2019. Interesting! What I wrote back in August 2018 seems quite synchronistic to me now:

I’m feeling a universe where it is possible for me to sense large changes in the financial markets before they happen. In this universe, I’m sensing a large change in the negative direction occurring either between October 5th and October 19th, on November 9th, or between December 26th and January 19th, 2019. Based on this, I sense that there is a greater than 50% chance that on March 9, 2019, the NASDAQ Comp will be lower than 7,560, the value it was on March 9, 2018.

I’m more curious about why I feel compelled to make this prediction. Only the future knows.

“Feeling” the direction of the market is risky business. If you were to ask me to feel the market now, I would likely stay with safe bets all based around the belief that a year from now, the US dollar will be of relatively lower value compared to other fiat currencies and precious metals. Partly because of this, and partly because the stock market has taken a beating due to the coronavirus pandemic, the NASDAQ, SP500, and most publicly traded stocks will be of higher value, priced in dollars, than they are now.

20200224M Day 55: Alphabet down 4.28% – I guess news travels fast ;)

Yesterday, I blogged that I was 20200223u Day 54: Surfing to a Universe where I work for Alphabet. Today, Alphabet stock is down 4.28% on my surfing move (Ha!).

Of course the financial news didn’t pick up on my surfing move and they blamed the drop of Alphabet on a 125nm diameter coronavirus. I mentioned a risking to stocks 30 days ago in 2020 Day 25: Wuhan Coronavirus in the Year of the Rat:

I’m feeling now a universe where the stock market is negatively affected by the Wuhan coronavirus.

The feeling I remember having then was more negative than the drop in prices today. which was the worst day in two years. I’m currently invested in a superposition of two universes – one where I’m fully invested in the market and one where I’m fully out of the market.