Today started with some magic – the simple kind where I confidently imagined where my lost airPods were and immediately found them more or less where I imagined they would be. An hour later, I used the airPods for an unexpected call that opened the door for an entire new parallel universe I had seen through the door keyhole a month ago. I spent the rest of the day preparing for the potential opportunity to walk through the door. Until a few moments ago, when I heard the news that a friend passed away today. He had been in my thoughts this last week as I knew he was ill. I’m still shocked to hear the news. RIP Brucie.
This song randomly started playing on my phone today.
I kept the live stream of the Renegade Burn running on my TV this weekend – tuning in whenever I was home. There are nearby universes in which I was there with my brother, who invited me at the last minute.
Courtesy @teleportcam on twitch.tv, Sept. 6, 2021
I also ran early this morning before the heat came. I started off pretty fast and then realized I was not wearing my “magic cap” that I had credited with my record breaking 2.49 mile run a few days ago. I immediately noticed a loss in energy and ended up running only 2.33 miles in 21:19. It is definitely a stretch goal for me to get close to 3 miles in 20:20.
Last night I did some planning with Zae for our first road trip, going to Unison Festival. As the story unfolds with Zae, it feels exciting to have access to only one page/day at a time.
Rosh Hashanah begins this evening at sundown and ends in a couple days at sundown. The next year 5782 is a Sabbatical year, or 826 times 7, and more importantly 118 times 49, making it the 7th Shmita in the cycle. It is interesting that in this Shmita year we will be seeing forms of debt relief, such as student loan debt. Cycles are strong in the energy of the multiverse and I would expect debt relief of different forms to occur. What implications this has for the value of the US dollar can be easily predicted.
Type 1 interferons are protein molecules in the blood that protect the body from viral infections. Autoantibodies are antibodies that attack the body’s own immune defenses. Generally, older people have more autoantibodies. The highlighted research found that 13.6% of individuals with critical CoViD-19, defined as admitted to the ICU, and 18% of people who died with CoViD-19, possessed type 1 interferon autoantibodies. In the general population, 0.4% of healthy people have autoantibodies and this varies with age, with 0.18% of those 18 to 69 having type 1 interferon autoantibodies, 1.1% of 70-79 year olds, and 3.4% of 80+ year olds. The research team suspects that the severity of other diseases besides CoViD-19 is worsened by type 1 interferon autoantibodies.
The IC assesses that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
So, in most universes near us, SARS-CoV-2 emerged in or near Wuhan, China around November 2019.
In addition, the IC was able to reach broad agreement on several other key issues. We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon. Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way. Finally, the IC assesses China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
So, in the vast majority of universes near us, SARS-CoV-2 does not appear to have been developed as a biological weapon and officials, at least in China, learned about the virus when the initial outbreak occurred.
There do appear to be perhaps as many as half or more universes around us in which SARS-CoV-2 was genetically engineered, to a greater or lesser degree. In a large subset of these universes, there is sufficient evidence of such genetic engineering.
After examining all available intelligence reporting and other information, though, the IC remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19. All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
This quote shows clear evidence of multiple sets of universes of almost equal number around us. There is one set in which SARS-CoV-2 jumped naturally to humans from a non-human host. There is another set in which SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a laboratory, either in natural or genetically engineered or enhanced form.
Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus—a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2. These analysts give weight to China’s officials’ lack of foreknowledge, the numerous vectors for natural exposure, and other factors.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
In the vast majority of universes in which SARS-CoV-2 infected humans directly from an infected animal, there doesn’t appear to be any direct evidence of this occurring. In these same universes, there doesn’t appear to be any direct evidence of an alternative origin.
One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
This quote is the strongest with “moderate confidence” in SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory, specifically the Wuhan Institute of Virology. At this point in reading the summary, it feels like the lab-origin universes outnumber the natural-origin universes by 2-to-1, 3-to-1, or even greater. The pandemic was an unexpected event and in the vast majority of universes around us at the time of the initial outbreak, the outbreak did NOT occur. In all of these universes, there was no “laboratory-associated incident”. The fact that even one IC element would access with moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 came from a lab points to this being correlated with the vast majority of universes in which the CoViD-19 pandemic occurs.
Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
Since the set of pandemic occurring universes are still quantum affected by non-pandemic occurring universes, it is expected that there would be a split in views. Also, a “laboratory-associated incident” is arguably more likely than a jump from the wild, all things being equal and assuming the Wuhan lab had SARS-like coronaviruses, which it apparently did.
Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
Gaps in intelligence explain why one IC would have “moderate confidence” in a lab origin theory while other ICs have “low confidence” in a natural origin theory.
The IC judges they will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of COVID-19 unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway for initial natural contact with an animal or to determine that a laboratory in Wuhan was handling SARS- CoV-2 or a close progenitor virus before COVID-19 emerged.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
So, both sets of universes remain nearby without evidence of the animal that could have hosted SARS-CoV-2 before it jumped to humans, and without evidence that a laboratory was experimenting with SARS-CoV-2 (not sure why the report restricts the lab to be in Wuhan).
The IC—and the global scientific community—lacks clinical samples or a complete understanding of epidemiological data from the earliest COVID-19 cases. If we obtain information on the earliest cases that identified a location of interest or occupational exposure, it may alter our evaluation of hypotheses.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
So, in the universe in which epidemiological data from the earliest CoViD-19 cases shows a link with either a lab or natural origin, then we will find ourselves closely surrounded by one set of universes or the other. It’s interesting to imagine how this so called “collapse of the wave function” would occur. In the parallel universe model of a mixture of surrounding universes, then in a subset of the natural origin universes, a link would be found to natural origin, and in a subset of the lab origin universes, a link would be found to a lab origin. In each of these cases, the universes in which one or the other happens would begin to attract other “like minded” universes consistent with the link found.
China’s cooperation most likely would be needed to reach a conclusive assessment of the origins of COVID-19. Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information and blame other countries, including the United States. These actions reflect, in part, China’s government’s own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China.
Unclassified summary of assessment on COVID-19 origins, 2021-08-27
In the universes in which SARS-CoV-2 “escaped” from a lab in Wuhan, and evidence of this is undeniable, there will be expected resistance by China’s government. In the universes in which SARS-CoV-2 naturally found it’s way to humans through a wet market, there would also be expected resistance by China’s government. So, this statement of China’s resistance would be expected in both sets of universes and doesn’t really provide much insight into which set of universes are nearer.
Final thoughts: It’s of interest that there exists an “unclassified summary” of such an important investigation. An exercise for the reader is astral project to a universe in which the entire investigative report is released, read it and report back.
Today, I ran for the first time in I don’t remember when. I ran two miles at a 10-minute mile pace. The temperature now is 99ºF so I’m guessing it was over 100ºF when I ran. It felt good to move my body and burn up some of the stress hormones I’ve been feeling in my body.
Today over 72 people were killed in two separate apparently suicide bombings in Kabul, Afghanistan – one at the airport’s Abbey Gate and one nearby close to the Baron Hotel.
Yesterday, the 7-day average of CoViD-19 deaths hit a record number of 9,856 for this sixth wave of CoViD-19 infections. A week ago on August 19, the 7-day average of daily CoViD-19 cases peaked at 657,522. Dividing these two results in a worldwide case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.499%. This compares with a CFR of 1.695% using the previous peak in the Spring of 828,292 7-day average of daily cases on April 29th and 14,041 7-day average of daily deaths on May 3rd. Both of these are lower than the CFR calculated from the previous Winter is 1.988%, based on Jan 26, 2021 peak 7-day average deaths of 14,808 and Jan 11, 2021 peak 7-day average of cases of 744,724.
Comparing to a year ago, the CFR was 2.43%, based on a peak 7-day average of 6,415 deaths on August 5, 2020, and a peak 7-day average of 263,473 cases on July 31, 2020.
For my county of Travis County, the CFR is roughly calculated as 0.7% using 7-day average of 4 deaths and 7-day average of 565 cases. This compares with 1.1% for total cases of 100K and total deaths of 1108.
It is important to remember that the CFR is not the same as the IFR, the infection fatality rate. Only a subset of infections are validated by tests and become confirmed cases. The ratio of cases to infections depends on the level of testing in the community. Deaths due to CoViD-19 are believe to be a more accurate value. So, the IFR is very likely less than the CFR. If the IFR is calculated for your specific cohort group (age, health conditions, etc.), then it can give a reasonable estimate of your chances of dying from CoViD-19.
For comparison, in 2018 living had a fatality rate of 0.7546% worldwide. Travis County had an age-adjusted fatality rate of 0.62% overall and 0.72% for men (TravisCounty nih.gov death rate). I’m not sure if I’m missing something, but it seems that living for a year in Travis County as a male is currently about the same risk of dying as having a positive CoViD-19 test result (7 per 1000).
2021-0901W-1700-AustinTX-OPAs
My brother sent me a link to research done in Israel comparing those who previously had CoViD-19 with those who were vaccinated. It is “the largest real-world observational study so far to compare natural and vaccine-induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2”. Science reported August 26, 2021 on this research in Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine—but vaccination remains vital. From the article:
The newly released data show people who once had a SARS-CoV-2 infection were much less likely than never-infected, vaccinated people to get Delta, develop symptoms from it, or become hospitalized with serious COVID-19.
Results SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant (P<0.001) for symptomatic disease as well. When allowing the infection to occur at any time before vaccination (from March 2020 to February 2021), evidence of waning natural immunity was demonstrated, though SARS-CoV-2 naïve vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected.
The conclusion is clear on the benefits of antibodies created from an active CoViD-19 infection versus antibodies created from one or more vaccines.
Conclusions This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.
One statistic from the paper that was not highlighted above was that the chance of symptomatic breakthrough infection in the vaccinated group was 27 times more likely than symptomatic reinfection in the unvaccinated previously infected group.
After adjusting for comorbidities, we found a 27.02-fold risk (95% CI, 12.7 to 57.5) for symptomatic breakthrough infection as opposed to symptomatic reinfection (P<0.001)
surfing the universe 