Category: Pandemic

20200218T Day 49: Kentaro Iwata leads Infectious Disease Control on Diamond Princess in Another Universe

After watching Kentaro Iwata’s video about his evaluation of infectious disease control (or lack thereof) on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, I can safely say there are quite a number of universes in which he was chosen to lead the ID control effort and the spread of COVID-19 was much less. His comments summarizing his findings are revealing:

Diamond Princess has completely inadequate infection control, and there is no professional ID person in charge. Passengers, crews, health care professionals working inside are at risk of infection, and the practice is even worse than what I saw in Africa. Immediate action is needed to save people inside.

I was curious about how the experience of the Diamond Princess compares with past infections of Influenza and found this 2010 paper: Outbreaks of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and Seasonal Influenca A (H3N2) on Cruise Ship. A summary of the paper’s findings:

To determine the extent and pattern of influenza transmission and effectiveness of containment measures, we investigated dual outbreaks of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and influenza A (H3N2) that had occurred on a cruise ship in May 2009. Of 1,970 passengers and 734 crew members, 82 (3.0%) were infected with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, 98 (3.6%) with influenza A (H3N2) virus, and 2 (0.1%) with both.

Does the increased infection rate of COVID-19 on the Princess Diamond mean that COVID-19 is that much more infectious? Or does it mean that, as Kentaro Iwata noticed, there was no real infectious disease control occurring on the Princess Diamond.

Update 2020-0219: Adding graph of Princess Diamond infections-to-date. I wonder how this graph looks in the universes where Kentaro Iwata, or someone equally qualified, was in charge. I hate feeling the universe where someone knew that the ship infectious disease control was substandard and decided against saying anything out of a desire to get “real data” on how COVID-19 spreads in a “more realistic” environment.

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20200216u Day 47: Diamond Princess Experiment will End Soon

The quarantine of the 3500 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship is supposed to end in a few days. The U.S. has now offered to evacuate American citizens off the ship and quarantine them for an additional 14 days. Since the daily number of new cases shows no sign of slowing down, the universe where all of the passengers are released in a few days seems far away.

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20200214F Day 45: Near Universe where 2019 Novel Coronavirus is in Austin

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Today, the CDC announced that individuals who display flu-like symptoms and who test negative for the flu should be tested for coronavirus. This is to start in a few of the larger cities (e.g. San Francisco, New York). Also today, I went to the urgent care with my partner to get tested for the flu. She has flu-like symptoms and tested negative for the flu. We asked about testing for novel coronavirus and the doctor had heard something about it being tested in some cities. She told us not to worry because COVID-19 has only a 2% mortality rate and that the flu kills many more people. She seemed to imply that the flu has a higher mortality rate, but I didn’t want to get into a math lesson with her when I figured she was just trying to ease our worries. “The only coronavirus confirmed case is in quarantine in San Antonio”, she said. She also mentioned that a number of people had been in today with flu symptoms and for some reason the flu tests were coming back negative. “Maybe something wrong with the flu tests”, she said. I mentioned that we had just flown in the day before from California. This didn’t seem to raise any concern. She knew about the Diamond Princess cases – she called the ship the “death ship” and was appalled that people were being kept on it instead of being quarentined in their own country.

I did notice the sign on the front door about letting them know if you believe you may have been exposed to COVID-19. I’m curious if the doctor would have still welcomed us with a handshake if we came in wearing masks.

20200212W Day 43: Universes Colliding as Coronavirus Daily Cases Increase 10x

This post is delayed a day. Yesterday I flew to Austin from Santa Cruz. It reminded me of the trips I would make back and forth six years ago. I remembered how I would often feel in a different universe when I was in one place versus the other. This trip has given me a similar feeling. I’m now in a universe where reported worldwide Coronavirus daily cases are up 10x over the day before. Chinese authorities announced they were changing the way in which they determine whether someone is infected by the novel coronavirus. Now, instead of needed to be tested, the doctor can make a determination themselves based on a diagnosis.

In this new universe, instead of the daily cases in China going down, it is now uncertain whether they are going down or going up due to having only one day of reporting using the new method.